The consensus in preseason rankings heading into the 2026-27 season has been that Florida and Duke, in some order, are the unquestioned two best teams in college basketball. The Gators have the slight edge in national title odds and have frequently edged Duke in most way-too-early rankings as the No. 1 team, with the Blue Devils slotting in closely behind at No. 2.
But not everyone agrees with the consensus, and in the dog days of summer, contrarian opinions get amplified because, frankly, there just isn't all that much to talk about right now.
On3's James Fletcher produced a contrarian opinion in his way-too-early Top 25 ranking that he released on Tuesday.
Not only is Duke not No. 1, Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils aren't No. 2 or No. 3, either.
Fletcher has Duke all the way down to No. 4, with Florida at No. 1, followed by Michigan and UConn.
On3 way-too-early Top 25 has Duke surprisingly at No. 4
Unfortunately, there's no reasoning given as to why Fletcher has both Michigan and UConn ahead of Duke. That's probably because there's no real logic behind it.
Both the Wolverines and the Huskies will undoubtedly be among college basketball's elite next season, but what's the argument for either being ahead of Duke?
Michigan lost its frontcourt trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson, and while Dusty May did quality work in the Transfer Portal, it's silly to assume that Tennessee's JP Estrella and Cincinnati's Moustapha Thiam are going to provide the same level of impact as three soon-to-be first-round draft picks.
The same can be said for UConn, which lost both Tarris Reed and Alex Karaban to the NBA Draft, along with Solo Ball to an already season-ending wrist injury. The projected starting five has Duke transfer Nikolas Khamenia as the team's starting four. Good luck to Dan Hurley on combating either Duke's or Florida's frontcourt like that.
Duke obviously has big shoes to fill with National Player of the Year Cameron Boozer, second-leading scorer Isaiah Evans, and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Maliq Brown moving on, but has any team won the offseason like Duke?
Not only did Scheyer once again land the No. 1 ranked high school class, but he also added one of the top players in the Transfer Portal in John Blackwell from Wisconsin. The Blue Devils won't have a Boozer type this season, unless things immediately click for Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, but this will be the deepest team Scheyer has had at his disposal since taking over as the team's head coach.
Duke has arguably the best backcourt in college basketball, and you won't find many frontcourts deeper or more talented than the one in Durham, either.
Right now, Florida is the only team with a legitimate argument on paper to be ranked ahead of Duke. Any others, and you're being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian.
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