Ever since Seth Trimble's shot went through the bottom of the nylon a month ago in Chapel Hill, Saturday night's matchup in Durham has been circled on the calendar for Duke coaches, players, and fans.
It would be ridiculous to call the loss - one of only two all season - the turning point for the Blue Devils, but Duke has certainly ascended to another level in the aftermath of it. Duke has won seven in a row since by an average margin of victory of 24 points per game.
Along the way, Duke knocked off then-No. 1 Michigan on a neutral court and then massacred Virginia and NC State in a span of 72 hours to clinch the outright ACC Championship.
Duke opened as a heavy favorite on Friday, a number that has continued to trend upward in the aftermath of the announcement that North Carolina star freshman Caleb Wilson would miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a broken thumb on his shooting hand.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 17 North Carolina final odds
- Spread: Duke -17.5
- Moneyline: -3000 Duke, +1200 North Carolina
- Point total (over/under): 146.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
Duke opened as a 15.5-point favorite before the status of Wilson was known. That spread has continued to creep upward since.
As much as UNC fans will contest it, the Blue Devils were always going to be a big favorite for this matchup, no matter what. Duke is No. 1 in KenPom vs. UNC at No. 29, with KenPom favoring Duke - without injuries factored in - as a 16-point favorite. Bart Torvik isn't far behind, favoring the Blue Devils by 15 points.
Prediction for Duke vs. North Carolina
Lightning isn't going to strike twice for North Carolina in this matchup. It wouldn't have if Wilson were playing either.
Duke is simply the better team, and uniquely equipped to punish Carolina for every one of its flaws.
North Carolina took advantage of a friendly whistle and Patrick Ngongba II being in foul trouble in the first matchup, something they won't be able to count on in Cameron.
Expect a big game from Cameron Boozer with Wilson out, and Duke's continued upward tick in three-point shooting to lead the Blue Devils to an easy win to close out the regular season.