The big storyline ahead of Duke's matchup against North Carolina on Saturday night in Cameron Indoor is the health status of Tar Heels star freshman Caleb Wilson. Wilson has missed the last six games after suffering a fractured left hand against Miami.
North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis has been intentionally coy about Wilson's status, and it probably won't be known for sure whether he's going to play until right before tip-off in Durham. That's okay, because his status won't change the fact that the Tar Heels are overmatched against the Blue Devils, and they won't have the homecourt advantage that led to the win last month in Chapel Hill.
Duke only shot seven free throws in the first meeting, and sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II spent the evening in foul trouble, only logging 16 minutes before fouling out of the game. UNC won't be able to rely on that kind of whistle at Cameron.
And Duke has begun rounding into its final form, and they can perhaps thank North Carolina for that. Since that loss, Duke has reeled off seven consecutive wins by an average margin of victory of 24 points per game. The Blue Devils look like the best team in the country, and they'll further hammer that point home tomorrow night.
One of North Carolina's biggest flaws will be a big reason why.
North Carolina's inability to force turnovers will be devastating against Duke
Duke's offense is ruthlessly efficient, and the recent uptick in three-point shooting makes them even more difficult to defend.
You know Cameron Boozer is going to get his - he scored 24 points in the loss in Chapel Hill - but the Blue Devils' supporting cast is starting to knock down jumpers at a much higher clip, making them nearly impossible to combat in the halfcourt.
Your best bet is forcing turnovers and stealing possessions, something North Carolina isn't particularly good at. In fact, they are one of the worst in the country. The Tar Heels force a turnover on just 13.8% of defensive possessions, which ranks 342nd in the nation. They are 306th in steal percentage and 336th in non-steal turnover percentage, per KenPom.
Duke point guard Caleb Foster isn't posting eye-popping numbers, but he's been incredibly steady. He has 23 assists to just two turnovers over the last five games, which happens to coincide with Duke's offensive explosion.
North Carolina's only real chance is to steal extra possessions via turnovers and offensive rebounds. They aren't good at turning people over, and even with Ngongba being in foul trouble in the first meeting, Duke won the glass by 12 and only allowed UNC to snag four offensive rebounds.
If this game just turns into a half-court contest, Duke's edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency should lead to a comfortable victory for the good guys.