North Carolina won the first meeting against Duke this season in Chapel Hill, handing the Blue Devils their only ACC loss and one of just two total losses on the season. But it's pretty clear based on metrics - and the opening betting odds - that everyone has accepted that result as a total fluke. One that will be corrected on Saturday night at Cameron Indoor.
The Tar Heels won't be able to rely on a friendly whistle and Patrick Ngongba's foul trouble again, and the Blue Devils are well equipped to take advantage of UNC's biggest flaw, regardless of whether or not Caleb Wilson is able to play.
Clearly, the oddsmakers agree, and they're not worried about any gamesmanship by Hubert Davis regarding Wilson's status. A dominant Duke win is expected by everyone outside of Chapel Hill.
Duke opens as a 15.5 point favorite over North Carolina on FanDuel
In FanDuel's opening line for the matchup released on Friday, Duke is a 15.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at 144.5, implying an expected 80-65ish final score in favor of the Blue Devils.
That's close to lockstep with what KenPom and Bart Torvik think about the matchup, too. KenPom projects an 81-65 win for the Blue Devils, giving them an implied 93% chance of victory. Torvk favors Duke 80-65, with a 91% chance of winning.
Games aren't won on spreadsheets, and there's been plenty of upsets in this historic rivalry. But Duke won't look past North Carolina on Saturday night, not after what happened last month in Chapel Hill.
The Blue Devils have wrapped up the ACC regular season championship, will be the No. 1 seed in next week's ACC Tournament, and have effectively clinched a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, though Michigan is still within striking distance of the No. 1 overall seed if the Blue Devils falter.
But the only motivation Duke needs for this matchup is that it's North Carolina on the other side of the court. No matter anything else at stake, that's more than enough.