The Duke football program, against all odds, will face off against No. 17 Virginia in the 2025 ACC Championship Game next weekend on December 6th. Despite finishing the regular season with just a 7-5 overall record, the Blue Devils snuck into the conference title game after Pitt's 38-7 loss to No. 13 Miami, the Blue Devils' 49-32 win over Wake Forest, and SMU's collapse against California, which resulted in a 38-35 loss. However, even if Duke takes down UVA in the revenge game and wins the 2025 ACC Championship, its College Football Playoff hopes are still fairly grim. The Blue Devils sit with five losses, including defeats at the hands of Tulane, UConn, and Illinois. With how the CFP selection is set up, it's going to be fairly difficult for Duke to have a case, even with a conference title.
This is Duke's first ACC title game appearance since 2013, and the program is seeking its first ACC Championship victory since 1989. However, even though the top five conference champions earn a guaranteed spot in the CFP, that doesn't have to include the ACC. There are several Group of Five programs that probably have better cases than Duke to make the 12-team field, so the Blue Devils could be in trouble even with a conference title, and it could mean the ACC as a whole is left out of the CFP.
Duke football could be "snub" victim from CFP even if it wins 2025 ACC Championship Game
It's going to be very difficult for Duke to make a case for itself with five losses and zero ranked wins, even with a conference title game victory. The Athletic's Matt Baker broke down the chances the Blue Devils have if they win the ACC Championship.
"If the Blue Devils beat Virginia, the CFP selection committee could snub the ACC’s champion in favor of whoever wins the American Conference (Tulane or North Texas) and James Madison (11-1 entering next week’s Sun Belt championship) for the fourth and fifth automatic bids," Baker said. "The Mountain West’s champion (San Diego State, New Mexico, Boise State or UNLV) could also have a case."
"The Athletic’s Playoff projection model gives Duke a 47 percent chance of winning the ACC title game, but just a 7 percent chance of making the Playoff — while James Madison has a 47 percent chance."
No. 20 James Madison and No. 22 Tulane have been the two programs that have generated the most discussion of being included in the CFP over Duke. A few weeks ago, the Blue Devils were the favorite to win the ACC Championship. Despite the loss to UVA taking those odds away, at the time, Duke had four losses, and there were already heated debates as to whether a four-loss conference champ should make the field over a 12-1 Sun Belt Championship winner like James Madison. Tulane will face No. 21 North Texas in the American Championship, and Duke fans will likely be rooting for the Mean Green. If Tulane wins, it will have a great argument to be included in the CFP over Duke, considering the Green Wave own a head-to-head victory over the Blue Devils this season.
Duke will likely need to dominate UVA to give itself any comfortable chance to be included in the CFP, but the odds don't look good regardless.