The Duke football program has never made a College Football Playoff appearance and hasn't won an ACC Championship since 1989. Taking a conference title from Clemson this season will be as difficult of a task as any, but 2025 may be the Blue Devils' best shot the program has ever had at making a College Football Playoff appearance.
This year may be Duke's best shot ever at making the CFP
For one, Duke got better as a roster coming off of an incredibly successful year one under head coach Manny Diaz, one where the Blue Devils won nine or more games in a season for just the fourth time in program history. It starts at quarterback, as the program went out and made a major upgrade at the position, signing Tulane transfer Darian Mensah, rated as one of the top portal QBs and a top signal caller nationally heading into the 2025 campaign.
The Blue Devils are also returning veteran running backs Jaquez Moore, who missed the majority of the 2024 season with injury, and Peyton Jones. With talented receivers acquired through the portal in Cooper Barkate and Andrel Anthony, it's likely the offense as a whole takes a major step forward from what it was a season ago, which was a bottom-tier unit in the ACC.
But it's the defensive side of the ball where the Blue Devils could truly develop into one of the best teams in the entire country. In 2024, Duke finished second in the nation in tackles for loss (116), fourth in the nation in sacks (43), and 26th nationally in third-down conversion percentage (33.8). From that unit, it returns cornerback Chandler Rivers, who might be the best returning secondary piece in college football, along with several other key returners. Add in talented rookies to the front seven in incoming four-star freshmen Bradley Gompers and Bryce Davis, and Duke could legitimately be in contention for the best defense in the ACC with the defensive-minded Diaz at the helm.
Going beyond how the program vastly improved from simply a roster-building standpoint, the new CFP model helps the Blue Devils tremendously. With the 2025 Playoff being formatted as a straight-seeding model, Duke more or less controls its own destiny. And with one of the easiest schedules in the ACC, this could pay dividends for the program down the road. The Blue Devils will only face two of the top seven teams in the ACC Preseason Media Poll: Clemson on the road and Georgia Tech at home. Beyond that, the team's conference schedule is fairly light. Winning those few marquee matchups could be all Duke needs to do to climb up the AP Poll and earn a Playoff spot.
The Blue Devils' Week Two matchup could decide the ceiling of the entire season, as Duke will host Illinois, the No. 12 team in the Preseason AP Poll, at Wallace Wade Stadium on September 6th. The good thing about an easy schedule is that if Duke can pick up a massive resume-boosting win early, it plays a major role with few high-level games on the slate. The downside is that if the Blue Devils end up getting steamrolled at home by the Fighting Illini, there may never be a chance to climb back up the ranks.
If Duke can secure home turf against its top two home opponents in Illinois and Georgia Tech, an 11-1 season is in the cards, assuming Duke loses at Clemson and beats everyone else on its schedule. An 11-win team with a win over a preseason AP top-12 team will certainly be in the mix for a CFP spot.
With the new CFP model, all conference champions still earn automatic CFP bids. But even without a conference championship, this season still might be the best chance Duke has ever had at making the Playoff.