After back-to-back games away from Durham, the Duke Blue Devils are happy to be back home in front of the Cameron Crazies in a pivotal ACC showdown.
Duke brings its newly-minted No. 1 ranking with them back to Durham, and has a chance to clinch the ACC regular season championship at home. Standing in its way is the surprising Virginia Cavaliers, who at 25-3 and 13-2 in league play are right behind the Blue Devils in the ACC standings.
First-year Virginia head coach Ryan Odom has Virginia back near the top of the ACC standings after taking over a team that finished just 15-17 overall a year ago.
Duke is hot, winners of five straight games, including a neutral site win over Michigan last Saturday in DC. Virginia is even hotter, winners of nine straight games and fresh off a complete annihilation of NC State on Tuesday.
The oddsmakers might favor Duke by a substantial margin, but Jon Scheyer knows his team will have its work cut out for it.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers final odds
- Spread: Duke -10.5
- Moneyline: -690 Duke, +480 Virginia
- Point total (over/under): 138.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
10.5 might seem like a lot for a matchup for two teams ranked in the Top 11, but it is about right, at least according to KenPom. Duke's KenPom rating reflects its ranking in the AP Poll, while Virginia is three spots lower at No. 14.
KenPom projects a 75-65 Duke win. BartTorvik is close behind, favoring Duke by 9.3 points.
Prediction for Duke vs. Virginia
Neither Duke nor Virginia likes to play fast, and both bring in defenses ranked inside the KenPom Top 15. The Cavaliers have been elite defensively over the last five games, particularly in the halfcourt, where they've held opponents to just 33.3% from the floor.
This game should be relatively low scoring as a result. Virginia will look to force Duke to speed up a little, which Odom's team hopes will make Duke uncomfortable and force mistakes.
But as good as Virginia has been defensively, Duke is even better. The Blue Devils have the nation's most efficient defense, and just completely shut down Michigan's potent offense a week ago. They'll do the same thing to Virginia.
And it doesn't hurt having the National Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer on your side, either.
Pick: Duke 72, Virginia 60