The final three games of the regular season for Duke will all be difficult. It starts on Saturday against Virginia at home, then the Blue Devils travel to NC State on Monday, before finishing up next Saturday at home vs. North Carolina.
Even at home, tomorrow afternoon's matchup against Virginia might be the most difficult of the three. The Cavaliers are an impressive 25-3 and just one game back of the Blue Devils in the ACC standings at 13-2 in Ryan Odom's first season in Charlottesville.
A win by Duke clinches at least a share of the ACC regular season title. A loss would put Virginia in the driver's seat.
Duke will be favored, perhaps substantially, but Virginia has the exact type of team that can cause problems for Jon Scheyer and company, perhaps even putting the Blue Devils on upset alert.
One worrying statistic for Duke heading into pivotal Virginia matchup
Virginia has an elite half-court defense and will enter Saturday's matchup ranked 15th in the country in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. For the season, the Cavs are only allowing opponents to shoot 36.3% in the half-court, which ranks in the 98th percentile across college basketball. Over the last five games, that number is even better at just 33.3%.
How have they done that? With relentless pressure. Virginia will pick Duke up full-court. They won't implement a lot of traps, but they will force the Blue Devils to eat more time off the clock than they would prefer before they can set up their offense.
And Duke has been a half-court team all year long. Scheyer's squad ranks 273rd in the country in Tempo, per KenPom. It's a slow plodding team that plays through star forward Cameron Boozer, and Odom's defense will look to put added pressure on Boozer by making sure there's a lot less time than normal on the shot clock when he gets the ball in his hands at the high post.
That might force Duke to speed itself up, which could lead to turnovers. The Blue Devils are 118th in the country in Turnover Rate, and the Cavs force turnovers on nearly 16% of opponent possessions.
Scheyer might be tempted to push the pace and try to get out in transition, but that's not Duke's game. He might be best suited for patience. Let the possessions take a little bit longer, work the shot clock, and find good looks while running the offense through Boozer as usual.
This is likely to be a lower-possession, lower-scoring game. And Duke brings the superior defense to Saturday's fight at Cameron Indoor.