ESPN recently released a list of the 32 teams that "can make the College Football Playoff," and despite the Duke football program entering a season with high expectations, the Blue Devils are nowhere to be seen on the list.
The list is generated by listing every team in the nation with at least a 10% chance of making the CFP, and Duke doesn't meet those qualifications according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The 32 teams are comprised of schools from each of the Power 4 conferences, the Mountain West, and the American Conference.
Only four ACC programs made the cut here, with Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Virginia Tech all calculated to have at least a 10% chance to make the CFP.
The Duke program has consistently been overlooked as a true contender throughout the offseason, both in the ACC and on a national scale, despite a complete roster overhaul by head coach Manny Diaz and his staff.
Duke brought in one of the top transfer portal quarterbacks in Darian Mensah, who is viewed as one of the top QBs in college football heading into 2025. The Blue Devils are also bringing back several key offensive players from last season, along with two talented receivers via the portal in Cooper Barkate and Andrel Anthony.
However, what could put Duke over the hump and turn the team into a true CFP contender is the elite defense. Coming off a 2024 season where Duke ranked second in the nation in tackles for loss (116), fourth in the nation in sacks (43), and 26th nationally in third-down conversion percentage (33.8), Diaz is returning several of his key guys in both the front seven and secondary. The most notable returner is rising senior cornerback Chandler Rivers, who's viewed as one of the best returning defensive players in the nation.
Now, for Duke to ultimately make its first CFP appearance in program history, a lot of things have to go right. The Blue Devils certainly don't have the most daunting schedule in the ACC, but there are a few games that could decide the ceiling of the 2025 season.
Duke takes on Illinois, a projected Big 10 contender, at Wallace Wade Stadium in week two. An early marquee victory over a program expected to be ranked in the preseason could completely change the outlook of where the Blue Devils can go and boost them into the AP top 25. Duke also takes on Clemson on the road and Georgia Tech at home, potentially two of the top three teams in the ACC.
Mensah is aware of how underrated Duke is heading into 2025, saying he and the rest of the squad will be ready to "shock some people." A lot has to go right for the Blue Devils to make this upcoming season a special one, but the tools are there to get it done.