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Duke sees NCAA title odds head back in the right direction after latest Caleb Foster update

As the possibility of Caleb Foster's return becomes more realistic, the odds for the Duke Blue Devils to win the National Championship have pulled a 180.
Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA;  Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) brings the ball up the court in the first half.
Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) brings the ball up the court in the first half. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Just under a week ago, college basketball fans were ready to regret their bets on Duke winning the National Championship. The Blue Devils had just eked by the Siena Saints in the first round, and the returns of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II seemed unlikely to happen in time.

Now, Duke has a dominant second-half performance for the win against TCU, Ngongba is back in the lineup, and there is an actual hope that Foster could return sooner rather than later.

Following the close call against Siena, the odds for Duke to win the National Championship had dropped as low as +500, trailing the likelihood of Michigan or Arizona winning it all by a relatively large margin.

Blue Devils set or title run with Caleb Foster's possible return

Now, with Duke head coach Jon Scheyer's update that Foster could return for the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils' odds to secure their sixth National Championship have headed back in the right direction, settling at +410 on Monday afternoon.

The Blue Devils are still trailing the Arizona Wildcats (+400) and the Michigan Wolverines (+290), but it is undeniably a good sign that even the Vegas oddsmakers are backing away from their panic surrounding Duke's chances.

National Championship odds

  1. Michigan, +290
  2. Arizona, +400
  3. Duke, +410
  4. Houston, +700
  5. Purdue, +1400

Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at any time.

Foster's return to the starting point guard role could irrefutably change what Duke's remaining run through the NCAA Tournament looks like, especially with the St. John's Red Storm and star guards Oziyah Sellers and Ian Jackson on the horizon.

Foster's poise and experience were critical for Duke's dominance in the regular season, and while the Blue Devils seemed to easily handle the ACC Tournament, the NCAA Tournament has been an entirely different scenario.

Being able to have Foster in the lineup, even if he is on limited minutes and doesn't start for Duke, could settle down the Blue Devils' entire roster, which is extremely young for a team looking to make it to the Final Four (and beyond).

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