The preseason college basketball polls dropped on Monday with the season just around the corner. Duke, as expected, will begin the season at No. 2 behind No. 1 Florida:
BREAKING: Preseason College Basketball AP Poll🏀https://t.co/g4z17LVdWP pic.twitter.com/dYJufsSTG0
— On3 (@On3) October 19, 2026
It has long been assumed that Florida-Duke would be No. 1 and No. 2, in that order, in the preseason polls. But is that an accurate indication of which team is better on paper? KenPom certainly doesn't think so, placing Duke ahead of Florida in his preseason rankings.
And while preseason exhibition games are ultimately meaningless, Florida suffered a stunning loss in Jacksonville over the weekend, 82-76, in which their biggest flaw was on full display. A flaw that isn't evident in Durham.
Duke appears to have a pretty sigificant edge at guard over Florida
Take a look at the box score from Florida's exhibition and see what stands out to you:
Baylor defeats Florida in an exhibition in Jacksonville, 82-76. Kayden Mingo with 31 points and the dagger 3-pointer in OT. 👀
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) October 18, 2026
Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/ooI1dtVait
Kentucky transfer - and one-time Gator - Denzel Aberdeen, who is currently eligible for a fifth year thanks to a TRO, was considered a major addition for Florida to fix a backcourt that wasn't good enough last season and led to a shocking loss to Iowa in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament.
Aberdeen shot 3-of-17 from the floor and 0-of-10 from three in the loss.
Boogie Fland scored 13 points, but continues to be more of a difference-maker defensively than on the offensive end. Urban Klavzar came off the bench and missed all seven of his shot attempts in 20 minutes. Florida has real problems in the backcourt that cannot be ignored just because they returned Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu in the frontcourt.
And you can say that exhibitions don't matter as much as you want, but it's clear that the game mattered to Todd Golden. He played Condon and Haugh 38+ minutes. Chinyelu played 33. Aberdeen and Fland played 36 minutes each. That's a game the Gators wanted to win and couldn't get it done.
Perhaps you can chalk it up to a poor shooting night all around. Those nights certainly happen in basketball.
But it should be seen as an early warning sign that Florida is going to continue having the same backcourt issues that plagued them a season ago. Problems that Duke isn't going to have.
The Blue Devils have one of the only frontcourts that can match the Gators, with Patrick Ngongba and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje giving Duke twin towers inside. Dame Sarr is physical enough to compete with Haugh, and freshman Cameron Williams could fill in at the three spot, too, and give Duke even more length.
There's no flaw in Duke's backcourt, though. Not with veterans Caleb Foster and John Blackwell, as well as talented youngsters Cayden Boozer and Deron Rippey Jr.
You can give Florida the edge over Duke in the frontcourt, but the gap isn't that wide. But when you look at the guard play, the Blue Devils have a noticeable advantage. One that should have been noticeable enough to lift the Blue Devils over the Gators to be preseason No. 1.
