Duke will almost certainly begin the season at No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll when it is released, behind expected No. 1 Florida. But KenPom's algorithm is a fan of the Blue Devils, giving them the slight edge over the Gators.
KenPom released his 2026-27 preseason projections over the weekend, and Duke came in at No. 1 with a 34.42 Net Rating. Florida is at No. 2 with a Net Rating of 33.38. Houston is at No. 3 and the only other team with a Net Rating above 30.0.
Duke finished last season No. 3 in KenPom with a Net Rating of 37.37.
KenPom projects Duke to be the No. 3 offense and No. 3 defense in adjusted efficiency. The Blue Devils finished last season sixth and third, respectively.
KenPom is bullish on Duke's 2026-27 outlook
Digging further into the data, KenPom projects Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils to finish the season 27-5 overall and 16-2 in ACC play. But that doesn't tell the full story.
In reality, KenPom gives Duke a greater than 60% chance of winning all but one of its games. The only game underneath that threshold is, unsurprisingly, the road game in Gainesville against Florida on December 1st.
The Blue Devils only have four additional games in which their expected win percentage is below 70%:
- vs. Michigan State (neutral): 67%
- vs. UConn (neutral): 69%
- at Virginia: 60%
- at Louisville: 64%
KenPom projects Duke to sweep North Carolina in Michael Malone's first season, giving Duke a 90% chance of victory at home and a 73% chance on the road to finish the regular season. KenPom projects the Heels as a fringe-tournament team at No. 37 overall with a projected record of 21-11 overall and 10-8 in ACC play.
Per KenPom, Virginia is Duke's biggest challenger in the ACC. The Cavaliers, who finished runner-up to the Blue Devils last season, appear formidable again and came in at No. 15 in KenPom's preseason rankings.
Louisville (No. 17) and Miami (No. 22) are the only other ACC teams inside the Top 25. North Carolina (No. 37) and Clemson (No. 50) are the only other two inside the KenPom Top 50.
The ACC is getting better near the top, and Virginia, Louisville, and Miami will give Duke a run for their money this year in league play, but the depth of the conference still isn't strong, with a lot of middling teams making up the majority of the ACC.
Duke has two more preseason exhibition games left against Tennessee (10/20) and Kansas (10/25) before the regular season opener at Cameron Indoor on November 2nd.
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