With just two days before Duke takes on St. John's in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, there appears to be some growing optimism that Rick Pitino's Red Storm could slay Goliath and knock the Blue Devils out of March Madness.
There is one key stat that could ultimately be Duke's undoing in an upset, and it should concern Jon Scheyer heading into the matchup.
Duke likes to play at a deliberate pace. It ranks 281st in Tempo, according to KenPom. Pitino will look to pressure the ball and speed the game up, in turn forcing Duke into turnovers and easy transition buckets for his squad.
And Duke has struggled this year with turnovers at times. The Blue Devils are 129th in turnover percentage, and gave it away 17 times during their 2nd Round win over TCU last weekend. That's not a recipe for a victory over St. John's.
Star forward Cameron Boozer has been struggling with turnovers, racking up 10 across two NCAA Tournament games. Both Siena and TCU used the formula of collapsing on Boozer and forcing the ball out of his hands, and he hasn't always made crisp decisions.
You can bet that Pitino is going to try to replicate that formula, and he has the dudes to do it that the others didn't.
Duke could really miss Caleb Foster against St. John's
While there's reportedly an outside chance that Caleb Foster will play on Friday, it's much more likely that he remains out and the Blue Devils will have to attack St. John's aggressive defense without their veteran point guard.
That's going to put a lot of pressure on Cameron Boozer, but also his twin brother, Cayden, who will be tasked with running point with Foster out. In Duke's two NCAA Tournament games, Cayden Boozer has 10 assists to only two turnovers. If he can replicate a 5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio against St. John's, Duke will be in pretty good shape.
But if Duke is lackadaisical with the ball and loses the turnover battle by a similar margin it did against TCU, then Scheyer could see his team's season come to a premature end in the Sweet 16.