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The doubt around Duke isn't going away ahead of Sweet 16 matchup with St. John's

Despite proving critics wrong all season, skepticism remains around the Blue Devils' chances of advancing to the Elite Eight.
Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) celebrates after scoring Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) celebrates after scoring Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke is moving on to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season, but it didn't come stress-free.

Despite coming into the game as heavy favorites, they struggled for the majority of their first-round matchup against No. 16 Siena, barely pulling off a 71-65 win. Those struggles carried over into the round of 32 matchup with No. 9 TCU, until roughly 15 minutes remained, when the Blue Devils finally flipped the switch - helped in large part by the return of Pat Ngongba II - and closed the game on a 37-16 run to win by 23.

After finally finding their groove against TCU, Duke now shifts focus to Friday night in Washington, D.C., where they'll take on No. 5 St. John's for a shot at the Elite Eight. The Johnnies handled No. 12 Northern Iowa easily in the first round before hitting a buzzer-beater to knock off No. 4 Kansas, giving them some momentum heading into this one.

Duke struggled early but reminded everyone why they're still one of the best teams alive with their second-half surge against TCU. Sure, St. John's has played well and earned their spot in the Sweet 16, but the media is doing what they do best: doubting the Blue Devils.

Blinded by bias, the media keeps the Duke doubt train moving

Duke keeps advancing, yet the media can't stop predicting their downfall. Believe it or not, I'm biased too, thanks to my borderline unhealthy obsession with the Blue Devils. Thankfully, they have been elite enough to justify my opinions, earning the number one overall seed in the tournament. After betting against Duke all season, the doubters are at it again heading into the showdown with St. John's.

First, they said Duke would lose to Michigan in D.C., and they pulled off the win. Before the ACC Tournament, there was doubt they could win the title shorthanded, but the Blue Devils proved them wrong yet again. Skepticism continued heading into the Big Dance, with some doubting Duke could get past TCU, and a few even predicting they'd be the first No. 1 seed to fall.

The trend of picking against Duke continued, with many, including Seth Greenberg, skeptical of the Blue Devils' chances of advancing to the Elite Eight.

Greenberg's idea that a more physical game would favor St. John's seems a little off base. The Johnnies hold an impressive defensive rating, ranked eighth on KenPom. However, the Blue Devils boast the best defense in the country according to that same metric. Even so, Duke is a slightly bigger team, especially with Pat Ngongba II hopefully back for the remainder of the year. St. John's isn't a small team by any means, but the Blue Devils should regularly get matchups they can exploit.

Another area where Duke has the upper hand is from deep. The Johnnies have struggled all year from beyond the arc, shooting 33.2% from three, one of the worst marks in the nation. Barring an out-of-character performance from St. John's and a cold outing from the Blue Devils, the advantage from deep should go to Duke. Of course, Duke has things they need to clean up in the days leading to the Sweet 16 showdown, but I am confident Jon Scheyer and staff will have the Blue Devils more than ready.

If Duke can take care of the ball, dominate the glass, and keep the Johnnies from catching fire from deep, the Blue Devils should be just fine.

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