Snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory has become a common theme in Duke losses over the last year.
Jon Scheyer hasn't lost many games over the last two years. But when he has, they've all stung and happened in inexplicable ways.
After Duke's baffling loss to UConn in the Elite Eight on Sunday, the Blue Devils are now a staggering 70-7 over the last two seasons, but they don't have a Naitonal Championship - or an appearance in a title game - to show for it.
And in Duke's last four losses, the Blue Devils have found ways to lose when winning seemed all but assured.
Duke’s peak in-game win probability in its last four losses:
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 29, 2026
2025 Final Four vs Houston: 97.5%
December 2025 vs. Texas Tech: 97.8%
February 2026 vs UNC: 95.1%
Today vs. UConn: 98.7%, per ESPN
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Duke has had a 95% or greater in-game win probability in each of its last four losses.
If you thought it couldn't get worse than the Houston collapse a year ago in the Final Four, Sunday was certainly a rude awakening.
Last year, Duke blew a 14-point lead and led by seven with just 90 seconds to play and still found a way to lose.
Against UConn, the Blue Devils led by as many as 19 points. With 1:33 remaining in the first half, Duke's win probability peaked at 98.7% as it led 44-25. Their win probability never dipped below 65% in the second half until Braylon Mullins' shot hit the bottom of the nylon.
Scheyer has done an excellent job in replacing Mike Krzyzewski. Stepping into the shoes of a legend is never easy, and he's carried the torch well. But now, until he cuts down the nets and leads Duke to the National Championship, Scheyer is going to have to carry the reputation of an NCAA Tournament choker.
After back-to-back seasons of inexplicable losses with loaded Duke rosters, that stigma is fair.
It'll be up to Scheyer and future Duke teams to break it.
