The national media has focused on expected offensive regression for Duke in 2026 with Darian Mensah transferring to Miami. While that may turn out to be true, it's certainly not definitive. San Jose State transfer Walker Eget is a quality QB, and the Blue Devils may have the best rushing offense in the country with star sophomore RB Nate Sheppard and a veteran-laden offensive line.
How Duke's 2026 season goes will be determined by the other side of the ball, however. The Blue Devils captured the ACC Championship in spite of a porous defense, far below the standards of Manny Diaz.
Duke finished last season ranked 86th in Bill Connelly's defensive SP+. That was a major drop-off from finishing No. 22 in the same metric in 2024. If Duke can avoid too big of a fall on the offensive side of the ball, and if Diaz's defense can regain 2024 form, then there's a world where the Blue Devils remain a legitimate contender in the ACC race.
Those are big ifs, however. There's optimism from Diaz and his staff that the defense is going to be better in 2026, but that's not knowable until the Blue Devils take the field and play actual games. Saturday's matchup against Tulane will be the first test.
"I know we've got a different feel on the defensive side of the ball than we did a year ago," Diaz said this week. "There's a bite and an urgency about them, and it reminds me more of 24 than what we saw in 25. But you got to go out there and do it. And with so many new faces, guys stepping up into different roles from what they had a year ago."
Manny Diaz is getting a 2024 feel in practice from his 2026 Duke defense
The biggest area of concern is on the back end, and Diaz has taken steps to fix the secondary. The Blue Devils added quite a few players in the Transfer Portal. Western Kentucky transfer Dylan Flowers and Montana transfer Kyon Loud will start at corner.
Sophomore safety Andrew Pellicciotta earned a starting spot as well, giving Duke three new starters out of four spots at defensive back. There are other experienced options in the two-deep if the starters struggle, which is a luxury that Diaz didn't have a season ago.
Diaz is a defensive-minded coach. He cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator and was always well respected for his acumen on that side of the ball. You had to know that he wasn't going to take last season's struggles lying down.
He made necessary changes, and there's optimism that those changes are going to lead to much better results this season. Tulane will provide a quality test for Duke immediately, and we'll get a good idea quickly on if the Blue Devils are going to be able to take a step forward defensively.
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