Isaiah Evans was determined to get to the NBA after his sophomore season. It always seemed like a foregone conclusion that, as long as his stock was in the first round range, he would declare for the draft and not leave open the possibility of a collegiate return.
Evans boosted his game as a sophomore with Duke, going from a spot-up shooter to an all-around offensive player and the second-leading scorer on the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Evans declaring for the draft wasn't surprising, but it's fair to wonder, after a lackluster showing at the NBA Combine in Chicago earlier this month and his stock seemingly trending in the wrong direction less than a month from the draft, if he would have been better off returning to college at Duke or even entering the NCAA's Transfer Portal.
It used to be that if you were a projected first-round pick, you stayed in the draft, capitalizing on your opportunity to make life-changing money. But in today's college basketball environment, you can make life-changing money before you get to the NBA. That's what makes his decision, with two years of eligibility remaining, so questionable.
Even in the aftermath of the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline, Evans' stock didn't get a boost from the likes of Alabama's Amari Allen, Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner, and Baylor's Tounde Yessoufou, among others, electing to return to college.
In fact, according to ESPN draft expert Jeremy Woo, Evans' stock fell five spots. Woo had Evans at No. 19 in his last update, but now Evans sits at No. 24.
Isaiah Evans falls 5 spots in ESPN's Top 100 NBA Draft rankings
The consensus on Evans remains that he'll be a first-round pick somewhere between No. 20 and No. 30. That would put him somewhere in the range of a rookie salary of between $3-$4 million, per Spotrac.
Considering that Yessoufou agreed to an NIL deal somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 million to transfer to St. John's, and most experts believe Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic will fetch something around that too, it's probably fair to believe that Evans' market value would have been similar.
He probably wouldn't have gotten that from Duke, but in the very least, he could have made similar money to what he stands to make as a rookie in the NBA at the college level next season, with the potential to move up the board even further in the 2027 NBA Draft.
There are no guarantees of that, though. Evans hasn't maxed out his potential, but what he projects to be at the next level is a 3-and-D wing, and there likely wouldn't be much to change that with another season of college basketball under his belt. The only real change would be that he's another year older, which can always have adverse effects on draft stock.
The withdrawal deadline proved fruitful for Duke's Maliq Brown, who is now a projected second-round pick. Woo has Brown at No. 54 on his big board, and the ACC's Defensive Player of the Year is currently projected as a second-round pick on Tankathon.
Evans didn't see the surge he hoped for, but he's still comfortably considered a first-rounder. That'll have to be good enough.
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