The Duke football program is heading into the 2025 campaign with high hopes after an extremely successful first season under head coach Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils won at least nine games in a season for just the fourth time in program history, and Diaz joined Mike Elko (2022) as the only Duke head coaches to accomplish that feat in their first season as head coach of the Blue Devils.
After bringing in one of the top transfer quarterbacks in Darian Mensah, mixed with a plethora of key returners from last season's squad, Duke has legitimate aspirations to compete for its first ACC Championship since 1989 and potentially earn a bid to the College Football Playoff.
So, how many wins can Diaz and his guys "expect?"
Expect is a much different word than hope. Now, Duke has a real chance to win nine or ten games, but that might be slightly more than what's expected from the program. The Blue Devils have been continuously underrated and swept under the rug by networks in terms of how real of a contender they are, and several massive games on the 2025 slate will determine a big portion of the outcome.
Games Duke can "expect" to win:
Week 1: vs. Elon
Week 3: at Tulane
Week 4: vs. NC State
Week 6: at California
Week 9: at UConn
Week 10: vs. Virginia
Week 12: vs. Wake Forest
In other words, this is essentially the Blue Devils' floor, which would be seven wins. These are non-conference games or home games against weak ACC teams for the most part. California is expected to be one of the worst teams in the ACC next season, so it's fair to say that Duke should expect to pick up a victory on the road against the Golden Bears. However, there are several other games that the Blue Devils can "hope" to win, and emerging victorious in at least a few of those games can completely shift the ceiling of the program's 2025 season.
Games Duke can "hope" to win:
Week 2: vs. Illinois
Week 5: at Syracuse
Week 7: vs. Georgia Tech
Week 8: at Clemson
Week 11: at North Carolina
The ceiling of Duke's season could be decided by that matchup in Week 2 against the Fighting Illini, one of the best teams in the Big 10 heading into 2025. If the Blue Devils can carve out a win against a ranked opponent early, it will thrust Diaz's club into the rankings and give Duke respect on a national scale for the rest of the season. The other matchups feature some tough in-conference games on the road and a home game against Georgia Tech, a team Duke can beat, but it probably shouldn't be expected.
A lot of Duke's 2025 season will be decided by how the program does at Wallace Wade Stadium. If the Blue Devils can go perfect at home or limit losses to one, that alone could make Duke a top-20 team nationally and right atop the ACC standings.