Duke football is coming off of an outstanding rookie year for new head coach Manny Diaz that saw the program finish 9-3 in the regular season, the third nine-win regular season for the Blue Devils since 2014 (2014, 2022, 2024). The campaign concluded with a berth to the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl for the Blue Devils against Ole Miss, where Duke fell 52-20.
The winter cycle for Duke football has been exciting, headlined by the commitment of Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah who is reportedly getting a monster two-year, $8 million deal to play at Duke. And along with a top-40 transfer class as a whole according to On3, Blue Devil football will be a sleeper contender in the ACC next season.
So, let's take a look at Duke's schedule for the 2025-26 campaign and predict the ceiling and floor for the Blue Devils next season.
Ceiling: 11-1 with two ranked wins on the resume
Non-conference: Duke should handle Elon, UConn, and Tulane on the non-conference slate, but its fourth non-conference matchup comes at home against Illinois in Week 2, a team ranked #7 in On3's 'way-too-early' top 25 rankings. If the Blue Devils can carve out a win at home over a potential top-ten team, that sets the tone for the rest of the season.
Key conference wins: The Blue Devils go undefeated at home against NC State, Georgia Tech (ranked #23 in On3's 'way-too-early' rankings), Virginia, and Wake Forest. Duke also handles business on the road over Syracuse, California, and North Carolina.
Lone conference loss: Duke goes near-perfect in the ACC, but falls at Clemson on November 1st. Regardless, the Blue Devils finish the season with three marquee wins over Illinois, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina.
The Blue Devils finished the 2024 campaign 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road. Its road losses came against Miami, who was one of the first teams out of the College Football Playoff, and Georgia Tech. If Duke can handle all of its home opponents, none of which are too much to handle, and avoid potential upsets on the road like at UNC or Syracuse, a lone loss in Death Valley to the Tigers will leave Duke at the top of the ACC and likely fighting for a CFP spot.
Floor: 7-5, picked off on the road more than once, can't earn any big time wins
Non-conference disappointment: Duke still handles Elon, UConn, and Tulane on the road, but loses handily at home to Illinois. The Blue Devils miss out on the opportunity to stack a key win early on.
Wins in conference: Duke still beats NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest at home along with California on the road. But, no exciting wins to boost the Blue Devils in the polls.
Picked off on the road too many times: The Blue Devils still lose to Clemson at home, but are also beaten by UNC and Syracuse in two testers away from home. Duke also falls at home to Georgia Tech, taking away any opportunity for the program to earn a resume-boosting victory.
What's more likely?
The Duke football program hasn't gotten worse from a year where it went 9-3 in the regular season. From bringing back leaders of a defense that was one of the best in college football last season like Chandler Rivers and Tre Freeman, along with a potentially elite young quarterback like Mensah, the Blue Devils are poised to build off of the 2024-25 campaign, and a regression would be an utter disappointment. A miracle 11-1 regular season seems more likely than a disappointing one where the program finds itself barely over .500.