The vibes were high in Durham, heading into the bye week. Duke was 4-0 and had already earned wins over two teams that beat them a season ago: Tulane and Illinois. All the preseason doubts surrounding this team in the aftermath of Darian Mensah's transfer seemed foolish.
But on the other side of the bye, those doubts have started to creep back in. The Blue Devils are 0-2 since, dropping close games to Georgia Tech on the road and at home against North Carolina last week.
In a vacuum, neither loss would be deflating on its own. But they've come in back-to-back weeks, and now Duke will have to try to bounce back in a challenging road environment on Friday night at Virginia.
Both the Blue Devils and the Cavaliers enter this game severely beaten up. Their injury reports are practically CVS receipts at this point.
Both teams are pretty desperate for a win. Duke has the back-to-back losses, and Virginia is sitting at just 4-3. Both teams have two losses in the ACC, and any dreams for either of getting back to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game - as long as those odds are for both right now - would officially die with a loss tonight in Charlottesville.
Betting odds for Duke at Virginia in Week 8
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 6am ET on Saturday.
Spread: Duke +2.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Moneyline: Duke +112/Virginia -134
Final Prediction:
Virginia is going to follow the same defensive gameplan that has given Duke trouble in losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina: stack the box to limit Nate Sheppard, and force Walker Eget to try to win the game by throwing down the field.
Duke has been apprehensive about allowing Eget to throw it down the field, and/or Eget has been trigger-shy about doing so. That's a major problem for Duke's offense, and it's limiting its overall effectiveness.
If Eget can soften the defense up a little bit by hitting some throws, it should allow Sheppard to get going. Virginia ranks 90th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 169 per contest.
Duke will have to hold up front without starting center Matt Craycraft, who went down last week against UNC. He won't be easily replaced, and will complicate matters as Duke looks to bounce back after consecutive defeats.
Expect a slugfest tonight with both teams trading body blows. Freshman kicker Gavin Strange gets his redemption from two weeks ago in Atlanta and bangs through a game-winning kick to lift Duke to a pivotal win:
Pick: Duke 23, Virginia 20
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