Duke is fortunate to still be alive in the NCAA Tournament. It overcame a lackluster effort - and an 11-point halftime deficit - to beat 16-seeded Siena in the opening round on Thursday. The Blue Devils clearly didn't take the game as seriously as they should have, and they nearly paid the ultimate price for it.
That can't happen again in the second round.
TCU is good enough to send Duke home if the Blue Devils don't give max effort.
Jon Scheyer is "hopeful" that star sophomore center Patrick Ngongba will be able to play against the Horned Frogs. He was officially listed as "questionable" on Duke's availability report on Friday night.
If he's able to play, it would give Duke a much-needed boost against a pesky second-round opponent.
Final odds and a prediction for Duke vs. TCU in the Round of 32
- Spread: Duke -11.5
- Moneyline: Duke -800; TCU +540
- Point total (over/under): 139.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
The odds opened with Duke as a 10.5-point favorite, but with optimism about Ngongba's return in Greenville, the Blue Devils have been bet up an entire point heading into Saturday evening's matchup.
Final Prediction for 1-seed Duke vs. 9-seed TCU
If Ngongba plays, it's hard to see a path to victory for TCU. The Horned Frogs just don't have enough offensive firepower, and with Ngongba anchoring the middle, there isn't a better defensive team in the country.
But his status as questionable makes it difficult to make a prediction. Because a lot changes for Duke without him, as we saw in the opening round win over Siena. Scheyer had to shift to a zone in the second half to stop the Saints from getting to the rim at will.
TCU has the defensive ability to frustrate the Blue Devils, and they will undoubtedly try to collapse on Cameron Boozer and keep the soon-to-be National Player of the Year bottled up.
But here's banking on Ngongba playing, and Duke's defense getting back to its suffocating ways.