Duke survived a shocking upset scare in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, rallying from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat 16-seeded Siena 71-65. The comeback win avoided what would have been the biggest upset in March Madness history, but Duke's poor overall performance is already having repercussions.
FanDuel released opening betting odds for Duke's second-round matchup against TCU, and while the Blue Devils are still a heavy favorite over the Horned Frogs, the spread appears to reflect some waning confidence in Duke as a legitimate national title contender.
Duke opened -10.5 over TCU, a smaller spread than expected, particularly when you take into account analytical data from KenPom and Bart Torvik.
Both sites believe Duke should be closer to a 13-to13.5 point favorite for the second round, but after the Horned Frogs showed moxy to stave off an Ohio State comeback attempt, TCU may be a popular upset choice in the second round, especially if the Blue Devils are forced to once again play without sophomore center Patrick Ngongba.
Duke's lackluster performance against Siena doesn't inspire confidence in a deep March run
All of Duke's flaws were on full display against Siena, particularly in the first half. The Blue Devils' defense struggled without Ngongba in the middle, allowing 43 points in the first 20 minutes before Jon Scheyer was forced to play zone for the second-half, a move that worked as Siena wasn't able to continue hitting shots at a high clip from deep.
Duke struggled mightily from three-point range itself, connecting on just 5-of-26 attempts. That was always a major concern with this team, especially if Isaiah Evans has an off night, which he did against the Saints, hitting 2-of-8.
It's not just the second-round odds against TCU, either. Vegas is a lot less confident today than they were before the start of the tournament in Duke as the national championship favorite. Duke was once +370 to win it all, and has dropped to +550 in the aftermath of the six-point win over Siena.
A lot of that fear could be mitigated if Ngongba is able to return. Duke will need him back quickly, as TCU has the inside game that can really make life difficult for the Blue Devils if Cameron Boozer is forced to play at the five spot exclusively.
A Ngongba return could be the lift Duke needs to get right back in the thick of the title hunt. Right now, however, the Blue Devils look a lot more vulnerable than anyone expected.