Get your popcorn ready! We are about to have one helluva game between No. 1 Duke and No. 5 St. John's in the Sweet 16. Jon Scheyer will have his first real test of the tournament vs. an all-timer in Rick Pitino. He also will have to make a few key adjustments to ensure than the Blue Devils keep on dancing. This is because Duke has made its fan base sweat it out in its last five trips to the Sweet 16.
Look at this crazy fact that FOX Sports' Chris Fallica was able to gather about Duke in the Sweet 16...
Duke has won its last five Sweet 16 games. None of the five wins game by more than seven points...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 24, 2026
Without question, all signs point to St. John's giving Duke a serious run for their money on Friday.
Here is a look at Duke's latest five trips to the Sweet 16, who they played, and their margin of victory.
Year | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|
2018 | Syracuse Orange | W, 69-65 |
2019 | Virginia Tech Hokies | W, 75-73 |
2022 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | W, 78-73 |
2024 | Houston Cougars | W, 54-51 |
2025 | Arizona Wildcats | W, 100-93 |
As you can see, the average margin of victory in these five games is Duke winning by only 4.2 points...
It should be noted Duke bowed out in the Elite Eight immediately after getting to the Sweet 16 in three of those seasons. Duke has also not won a national championship in a decade, dating back to 2015. There is also this... Every season Duke has won a national title, it has beaten St. John's. While the last four of those wins occurred during the regular season, the first was in the Elite Eight in 1991.
So it is only fitting that FanDuel has Duke favored by only 6.5 points ahead of this Sweet 16 matchup.
Duke fans should expect the Blue Devils to win, but not cover in Sweet 16
Look. If Duke is laying 6.5 points to St. John's and has won its last five Sweet 16 games by a margin of victory over only 4.2 points, you know what to do... Then again, trends are always meant to be bucked, and records are meant to be broken. Right now, Duke is probably more than a possession better than St. John's, but it will need to be ready for the task from opening tip to stave any upset bid from them.
Admittedly, Duke is banged up coming in. Patrick Ngongba II only just returned from his injury. While there is a non-zero chance that Caleb Foster could be back, Duke may need to lean on the Boozer twins to come out of this alive. Again, St. John's is phenomenally coached by Pitino. When Bill Self tried to play the foul game up near the end of regulation, that blew up in his face so catastrophically.
In the end, these are the type of matchups you could only hope for as a college basketball fan. Since Duke has not played St. John's yet this season, it will serve as the line of demarcation on if Scheyer wins his first national title leading his alma mater. A win over the Red Storm on Friday night probably means it is over for everyone else. Then again, that is why you play the games. We cannot wait for it!
If Duke loses or wins by more than eight points, that is going to surprise everyone who is watching.
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