Sleep on Duke at your own peril. CBS Sports' Brad Crawford is the latest member of the national media to do so. He has Duke going 6-6 overall and 4-5 in ACC play this year. While going 6-6 feels like this team's floor, Manny Diaz has won nine games in both seasons he has led the football program. This includes winning the ACC with a 7-5 record from a season ago. People tend to forget about that.
Here are the games Crawford believes Duke will win this season, as well as the ones it could be losing.
- Wins (6): Tulane Green Wave, Stanford Cardinal, William & Mary Tribe, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Boston College Eagles, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Losses (6): Illinois Fighting Illini, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers, Miami Hurricanes, Clemson Tigers
While the idea of a loss to struggling North Carolina seems to be the most baffling, let's not kid ourselves here. A 7-5 (5-4) record is very much in play for this team of great variance. In a best-case scenario, Duke could go 9-3 (6-3) and repeat as ACC champions. However, there is one underrated silver lining in play for Duke going 6-6 (4-5). That would be Nina King's ability to retain Diaz for 2027.
Diaz may be lying in the tall grass, but the guy can flat-out coach. Should his alma mater of Florida State become available, he may very well be on the shortlist of candidates to replace Mike Norvell in Tallahassee. Interestingly enough, Crawford has Florida State also going 6-6 in his ACC projections. This leaves it up for debate if Norvell will get another crack at it. Uncertainty will bring clarity for Diaz.
More importantly, failing to exceed expectations should allow King to curry favor in retaining Diaz.
Nina King has to be the one to keep Manny Diaz around for the long haul
Follow along with this. If Diaz wins upwards of nine games, while Florida State simultaneously circles the drain under Norvell's watch, it may become very obvious who the Seminoles' next head coach will be. King will try her best to put forth a highly competitive offer to keep Diaz around for the long haul. Florida State may just outbid her. However, King can be the one to keep Diaz in Durham beyond 2026.
A slight pullback to something around 7-5, or even 6-6, from 9-5 might not be the worst thing in the world for all parties involved. Diaz may want to establish roots at Duke more so than his predecessor Mike Elko ever did. Most importantly, King putting her trust and faith into Diaz could create some loyalty to the Duke football program from him. He could have a down year, but could get an extension.
King has done work to make Duke a power player in major revenue sports. Duke has become a place where its best programs can contend for and win conference championships. The football program is not the easiest job in the world, but it can be more than the springboard Elko and Steve Spurrier used it for to get higher-profile gigs. Maybe Diaz is cut from the same cloth as David Cutcliffe was after all?
ALSO READ: Mike Elko’s rapid coaching ascension with Texas A&M bodes well for Manny Diaz at Duke
To be frank, Duke and Florida State being .500 teams this season is actually a positive thing for Diaz, King, and the rest of the Blue Devils. Diaz will be too good to be terminated by Duke. Norvell might get another crack at it with Florida State. Even if he does not, Diaz may not be at the front of the line to take over at his alma mater. The job being filled by someone else may incentivize him to stick around.
Overall, having a boss who allows newcomer coaches to grow while also fielding competitive teams is never a bad thing. One day, Diaz may outgrow Duke for good. In the meantime, he is clearly building something special here, even if the occasional down year may manifest. Typically being compared to Florida State is less than ideal, but in this spot, Duke and Diaz can make it work. We can only hope so.
Diaz may be an ascending head coach at Duke, but that does not mean progress will always be linear.
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