It doesn't take much convincing, even for Duke fans, that the Blue Devils are likely to take a step back this season on the gridiron. Those types of seasons don't come around all that often. Duke captured its first outright ACC Championship since 1962.
After losing Darian Mensah to the Transfer Portal, not even the most ardent Duke supporter suspects a repeat performance.
But too many seem to expect a major drop-off for the Blue Devils. Maybe that will happen and prove prophetic, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism. San Jose State transfer QB Walker Eget should provide some stability to the position, and the Blue Devils might have the best running back in the ACC in rising sophomore Nate Sheppard.
If Manny Diaz can fix his beleaguered defense, then there's real reason to believe Duke can be right in the thick of the ACC race again.
CBS Sports' Brad Crawford isn't all that optimistic about Duke's chances. He projected the record for all ACC teams in 2026, and ended up with the Blue Devils at a disappointing 6-6. More outlandish than that prediction, however, is that one of the projected losses would be to Bill Belichick and the UNC dumpster fire at home.
CBS Sports' Brad Crawford projects Duke to lose at home to North Carolina in 2026
Crawford isn't far off in his prediction. I think Duke fans probably could have accepted 7-5 and flipping the UNC result. But 6-6 with a home loss to the Tar Heels? Make it make sense.
What has happened this offseason for anyone to believe that North Carolina will be any less of a disaster than it was a year ago? Was it losing their big Transfer Portal addition at QB? Was it hiring Bobby Petrino to the three-ring circus in Chapel Hill?
Duke went on the road and knocked off UNC last season. They'll take care of the Heels in Durham this time around.
Crawford's projections are reasonable otherwise. Here are his projected wins and losses for the Blue Devils:
Wins: Tulane, Stanford, William & Mary, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest
Losses: Illinois, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Clemson
A 6-6 mark would be disappointing. It would constitute a step back in Diaz's third season. Beating UNC and finishing at 7-5 with the rest of the results remaining the same would be a good season for a team that went through as much adversity and roster turnover at key spots so late in the Transfer Portal window.
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