Despite losing on the road against Tulane last season in New Orleans, Duke opens the season as a healthy favorite against the Green Wave at home.
As of Monday morning, the Blue Devils were 9.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel. Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings like Duke even more, projecting a 34-21 win for Manny Diaz and his team to open the season.
Despite that, there's some anxiety surrounding the matchup for Duke fans after last season. Part of that has to do with a new starting QB in San Jose State transfer Walker Eget. There are a lot of unknowns because of that, and because of a revamped defense that has to take a step forward in order to be competitive in the ACC.
But Duke's biggest offensive strength also coincides with a Tulane weakness, which provides optimism that the Blue Devils can pull out a comfortable win at Wallace Wade to begin the season.
Duke's rushing attack might provide a significant advantage in Week 1 vs. Tulane
There's been little room for ambiguity on what Duke's offensive philosophy will be this fall. Diaz and the players have signaled, long before a starting QB was named, that they were prepared to pound the rock in 2026.
Duke has a veteran-laden offensive line that they fortified in the portal with the additions of Nick Del Grande and Braden Miller as bookends.
The Blue Devils also have one of the country's top returning running backs, despite the fact that he's flying under the radar somehow. Sophomore Nate Sheppard is back after an 1100 yard freshman season, and Duke had its most success down the stretch of last season when Sheppard became the focal point of the offense. That will be the case for a full season in 2026.
Sheppard will be the bellcow, but Duke shored up its depth behind him by adding veteran transfers CJ Campbell and Wilhelm Daal.
Duke will get the opportunity to get their run game off to a quick start against a Tulane team that finished 99th in the FBS in run defense success rate, per Game on Paper. And that was a Green Wave team that ultimately made the playoff with Jon Sumrall as the head coach.
He's now at Florida, and Tulane took some significant portal losses that could cause Will Hall's first season as the head coach to be more of a transition season.
Duke is a hefty favorite for a reason. Sheppard and the ground game should be able to find a lot of success against Tulane's front, opening up some easy play-action throws for Eget as he gets comfortable in his first Duke start.
If Duke can take care of the football and the defense isn't a complete disaster again, then Diaz and the Blue Devils should have the start to the season they desperately need with a challenging schedule ahead.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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