What a statement win for the Duke Blue Devils! Jon Scheyer's No. 3 team in the nation out-performed the No. 1-ranked Michigan Wolverines in the Edwards Jones Capital Showcase, 68-63. It was one of those games where the more physical team kept the other combatant at arm's length all game. In this clash between college basketball titans, Duke prevailed in a huge way to improve 25-2 on the season.
Leading the charge for Duke was future lottery pick Cameron Boozer with 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting, to go along with 10 rebounds in his magnificent double-double. Boozer really set the tone for what Duke needed to do on the glass. Duke out-rebounded Michigan 41-28 on the night. Boozer led the way with his 10. Nikolas Khamenia had nine off the bench. Patrick Ngongba II had six as well.
Yes, Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg got his with 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting, seven rounds, three assists, two blocks, and a steal. However, Duke was able to eke out a hard-fought five-point neutral-site victory over Michigan because of how well the Blue Devils defended the 3-point line. Michigan shot only 24 percent from distance. Duke shot 32 percent from range, as that was a key difference.
If Duke were to play Michigan again, Scheyer must expect a better 3-point effort out of his opponent.
Duke's 3-point defense is a huge reason why Blue Devils beat Michigan
When looking at their team stats after this game, Michigan usually makes 35.7 percent of its attempts from distance. Duke is slightly worse than than mark at connecting on 34.8 percent of its 3-point attempts. What is important is Duke out-performed its season-long 3-point percentage allowed of 30.7, whereas Michigan did not hold up its end of the bargain from its yearlong clip of 29.2 percent...
Yes, Duke being 6.7-percent better at 3-point defense was as critical to the Blue Devils' win over the Wolverines, as was Duke making 3.2-percent more 3-pointers on Michigan than an average foe. If we were to combine both percentage changes, Duke was 9.9 percent better with regard to the arc than Michigan was. In a game that was decided by only five points, that was such an underrated difference.
Overall, if Duke were to face Michigan again, it would likely be in the latter stages of this year's NCAA Tournament. It is so hard to beat the same team twice in a season, so let's keep that in mind. Yes, it will be another neutral-site affair, but Duke better expect Michigan will play the Blue Devils even closer now. While it can control its effort on the glass in a rematch, what if Michigan shot the ball well from 3?
Ultimately, Duke being able to dictate terms on the glass will set the tone in any rematch. It seemed to compound in Michigan being slightly more off-mark from distance than its usual. This just goes to show that great teams can make an opponent play off-schedule and out of rhythm. Of course, teams can get hot from 3-point land, and Duke has to be well-aware of that. For now, let's enjoy the big win!
Barring any sort of unforeseen slip-ups, Duke is a lock for a No. 1 seed, and probably the top overall.