After Caleb Foster injured his foot in Duke’s regular-season finale win over North Carolina, it became generally understood that if he returned to the court at all this year, it would be in the Final Four. However, according to Jon Scheyer, just 20 days after suffering a foot fracture, the 6-foot-5 junior point guard will be a game-time decision.
The Blue Devils are a perfect 5-0 since Foster went out with an ACC Tournament title and a Sweet 16 appearance to show for it, but his absence has put a particular strain on Scheyer’s top freshman, Cameron, the national player of the year, and Cayden Boozer. Foster’s potential return for a Regional Semifinal matchup with Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Flash in Washington, D.C., on Friday night couldn’t come at a better time.
Duke desperately needs another ball-handler against St. John’s
For as shaky as he was last season and as up-and-down as this year has been, Duke has lost a lot with Foster’s injury. The former five-star wasn’t just a calming presence as a veteran point guard for a young team; he provided necessary spacing as a 40-percent three-point shooter and quality point-of-attack defense. However, the biggest reason Duke needs him back isn’t for either of those two abilities.
Most of Duke’s offensive numbers have nosedived in the postseason, but one of the most alarming, especially against Pitino’s Johnnies, is the turnover rate, jumping from 13.6 percent to 15.2 percent. Nearly a two-percent bump is noticeable, and against a team that turns over its opponents at a 16.8 percent rate and averages 17.1 points off turnovers (per CBBanalytics.com), it’s meaningful.
In the half-court, St. John’s is not a good offensive team. The Johnnies shoot just over 40 percent from the field on those possessions, which is why Pitino wants to dominate the offensive boards and score in transition. Transition is where 15.4 percent of their field goal attempts come from, and where they’re shooting nearly 60 percent.
To get into transition, oftentimes, you need turnovers, and that’s what Pitino is going to try to create with his intense ball pressure on Duke’s ball-handlers. Pitino doesn’t run a complicated full-court press. He just has his athletic defenders pick up full court and make life difficult. That’ll be a huge challenge for Cayden Boozer, as it was for Kansas’s backcourt in the Round of 32, and will likely require Cameron Boozer to bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense.
In most cases, Cameron’s combination of size, skill, and split-second decision-making is a skeleton key against full-court pressure. But most teams don’t have Dillon Mitchell, St. John’s 6-foot-8, 210-pound defensive ace, who averages over a steal and nearly a block per game. Mitchell can pick up Cameron Boozer full-court, hold up against his size, and overwhelm him with his length.
The Boozers are both advanced beyond their years, but ultimately, they’re still freshmen playing in their first Sweet 16. Foster has been to a Final Four, just last year, and even if he’s not 100 percent, he’s another ball-handler who can ease the burden on the Boozer twins. That would be massive if he gets the green light to make his return.