While sophomore big man Patrick Ngongba has not yet formally announced his decision to enter the NBA Draft, it seems likely, with his status as a projected first-round pick and his injury history, that he'll cash in and turn pro.
That will leave Duke with a major hole at center. And while 4-star center Maxime Meyer recently flashed his immense potential at Canada's U18 scrimmage, it's asking too much for a true freshman considered as more of a project big to try and anchor the Blue Devils defensively next season. Meyer may have a role, but won't be as the starting five in Durham.
There are several good candidates out there to replace Ngongba, but they won't come cheap. The big man market has exploded across college basketball, and Jon Scheyer is going to have to be willing to pony up to get Duke's anchor.
When scouring the Transfer Portal, however, he should avoid these three names.
Duke needs to avoid these 3 potential Patrick Ngongba replacements
3. J.P. Estrella, Tennessee
Tennessee transfer J.P. Estrella will draw plenty of intrigue after averaging 10 points and 5 rebounds per game as a sophomore in Knoxville. His offensive game and rebounding ability are attractive, but he doesn't bring much in terms of rim protection, which would be a massive drop-off from what Duke had in Ngongba.
Estrella's block rate of 2.5% is less than half of Ngongba's (6.0%).
He's a good player, and he'll be productive wherever he ends up. But there are better system fits for him than Duke.
2. Chol Machot, Charleston
Unlike Estrella, Charleston's Chol Machot brings a rim-deterring factor with him that would even exceed Ngongba's. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game in fewer than 20 minutes a night for the Cougars.
The biggest issue with Machot, and why there's legitimate concern about his ability to translate to a high-major, is that he's listed at just 190 pounds at 7-feet. That calls into question whether he'll be able to hold up with the physical bigs that Duke will face next season, particularly in March Madness.
That's a risk Scheyer can't afford to take.
1. Drew Fielder, Boise State
Boise State's Drew Fielder is one of the most intriguing offensive big men in the Transfer Portal. He averaged 14.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game for the Broncos this season in a breakout year after transferring from Georgetown. He knocked down 40.9% from three while doing so.
But like Estrella, the problem with Fielder is that he wouldn't be a rim protector. Ideally, Fielder would likely play the four next to a rim-protecting five. So if he transferred to Duke, Scheyer would need to rely on 5-star freshman Cameron Williams, also more suited to play the PF spot, to play center and hold up against the physical, bigger big men on next season's schedule.
Fielder is a good player, but that seems like a recipe for Duke to take a significant step back on the defensive end.