Can Duke Win The NCAA Tournament?

Since the early 1990s, Duke has had one goal – win the NCAA Tournament. Sure, the ACC Regular Season and Tournament titles are nice. A trip to the Final Four is also exciting. But,ultimately, every season will be judged on whether Duke wins it all. So with that in mind, can the 2017 Duke team win the National Championship?

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The short answer, yes.

Please keep in mind, I have almost unending optimism and faith in Duke basketball. However, I still believe these team can cut down the nets in early April. Here is why:

1) Coach K

The greatest college coach of all-time. Period. He is Duke’s greatest asset and should not be underestimated at this time of year.

2) Talent

You have heard it all year. The media, especially in the preseason, was saying things like, “Duke has the most talent in the country” or even “Duke may have the most talent in the past decade.”

Frankly, it has not gone as predicted. Harry Giles is not the player he was projected to be. Neither is Marques Bolden. Grayson Allen’s struggles have been beaten to death.

Despite all this, Duke still has one of the most talented teams in the country. Luke Kennard is better than everyone thought he would be. Jason Tatum is the superstar everyone thought he would be. Allen and Jefferson appear to be getting healthier. Frank Jackson has played exponentially better this past month.

This is a dynamic and versatile team with countless ways to score. The offensive power of this team alone will keep them in every game.

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3) Duke Might Be (Finally) Peaking

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This seems like a weird thing to say after Duke lost 3 of its last 4 regular season games. However, the Syracuse loss was at the buzzer. The Miami loss was a 1-possession game in the final two minutes. As for the UNC loss, Duke went toe-to-toe with the presumptive favorite to win the National Title on their home court. Despite the loss, Duke looked every bit of a contender in the last game.

In between these three games, Duke beat Florida State by 5. The score does not reflect the competitiveness of the game. Duke controlled the game from start to finish and handily beat one of the better teams in the country.

If Duke plays like it did the past week in the win over FSU and UNC, Duke will have a legitimate chance to beat any team in the country.

4) Experience

It is easy to forget that this Duke team has three regular contributors (Amile, Grayson, and Jones) who were all a part of the 2015 National Championship Team. Only one other team in the country, Villanova, can boast that type of experience. Do not underestimate this – all three players know what it takes to cut down the nets in April.

Furthermore, the ACC itself has provided Duke with a trial by fire. The ACC is going to place 9 – 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Duke has played tournament-quality teams night in and night out. No one will surprise this team or any ACC team for that matter.

The more accurate answer is that Duke will probably not win it all.

I fully believe Duke can win the NCAA Tournament. However, despite the above, it seems very unlikely that Duke will do so.

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It is an incredible challenge to win 6 straight games in the tournament and always takes a little luck. This team has failed to play at a consistently high level like the 2015, 2010, and 2001 teams and may not be able to survive 6 difficult games.

In addition, Duke has struggled guarding the paint all year and allow its opponents to score too easily at the rim. Furthermore, unlike other elite Duke teams (think 2015 and 2010), this team is a good, rather than great rebounding team.

Rebounding and defense give teams that are heavily reliant on the 3-pointer more of a cushion. Without this cushion, Duke is prone to a bad shooting game and a quick tournament exit.

History is not on Duke’s side. As of March 7, Duke is projected to receive a 3, 4, or 5 seed depending on their performance in the ACC Tournament. Over the past 25 years, Duke has only performed well as a 1 or 2 seed.

For example, all but one of Duke’s National Championships came  when Duke was seeded on the 1 line. In 1991, Duke was a 2 seed. In 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015, Duke was a 1 seed.

Here are the more recent years when Duke was not a 1 or a 2  seed in the tourney:

2016 (4 seed) – lost Sweet 16

2014 (3 seed) – lost first round

2007 (6 seed) – lost first round

2003 (3 seed) – lost Sweet 16

This is not a large sample size. Duke usually earns a top 2 seed in the tourney. However, the last time Duke outperformed its seed (assuming a National Title as a 1 seed is considered meeting expectations) was 1994 when it reached the finals as a 2 seed.

Is this merely an anomaly? It is definitely surprising that Duke has not outperformed its seed in 23 years. Ultimately, Duke is going to need to exceed expectations in the NCAA Tourney if they are to meet their pre-season expectations.

Will Duke rebound and defend well enough to survive tight games? Will Grayson and Amile ever be healthy enough to play their best?

If the answer to both of these questions is “yes”, Duke will have a chance.