The Atlantic Coast Conference has been in quite a down year so far through the season, and it shows in NCAA Tournament bracket projections across the country. Even the ACC squads that have been winning in conference play are fighting to stay inside the bubble, as there's few quality wins in the ACC to go around. So as of Thursday, February 6th, let's see who's in the running out of the ACC.
Locks: Duke
Duke (20-2, 12-0 ACC) is leading the way as the cream of the crop in the ACC. The Blue Devils are ranked #2 in the Associated Press poll and are a projected 1-seed in the tournament. Duke is 5-2 in Quadrant 1 games with losses to Kansas and Kentucky on neutral courts, but a home win against #1 Auburn and a road victory over Arizona on the resume.
It's been proven more and more as the season has progressed that Jon Scheyer's difficult schedule he built through the non-conference slate was crucial, as Duke has really no opportunities to boost its resume in this year's ACC.
The Blue Devils have won all 12 of its conference games, 10 of them by double digits, and 7 of them by 20 points or more. Duke has breezed through the rest of the ACC and has a real chance to go undefeated in conference play.
Outside of Duke, there isn't a single 'lock' out of the ACC. But, some teams have strolled to solid records in conference play to at least make it difficult for the committee to keep them out.
Joe Lunardi's Bracketology currently has three ACC teams in the field other than Duke: Louisville (17-6, 10-2 ACC) as a 7-seed, Clemson (18-5, 10-2 ACC) as an 8-seed, and Pittsburgh (14-8, 5-6 ACC) as one of the last four teams in.
Probables: Louisville, Clemson
Louisville has been an exciting story out of the ACC in year one under Pat Kelsey. After beginning the season 6-5, the Cardinals won 10 straight games to climb to second place in the ACC standings, The Cards recently dropped one to a pesky Georgia Tech team but have no bad losses on their resume besides the one to the Yellow Jackets.
The Cards are 3-5 in Quad 1 and 13-1 across the other three Quadrants. Despite dealing with loads of injuries all season, Louisville is the safest tournament bet out of the ACC as of today.
Clemson also got hot once conference play rolled around, winning 10 of its first 11 ACC games before also falling to Georgia Tech on February 5th in triple overtime.
The Tigers have some not-so-great losses to teams such as South Carolina and Boise State, but also have a signature win over Kentucky.
Clemson is 2-2 in Quad 1 and 16-3 across the other three Quadrants, but that Georgia Tech loss does count as a Q3 loss since it came at home.
The Tigers are in a comfortable place right now, but can't afford to lose more than one or two remaining regular season games, as a loss in six of their remaining eight games would result in a Q2 loss or worse.
On the right side of the bubble: Pittsburgh
Despite a rocky road through conference play for the Panthers, Jeff Capel's squad is still projected as one of the last four teams in the field.
Pitt looked like it would be fighting with Duke for the top spot in the ACC early on in the season, starting the season 12-2 before dropping six of their last eight games. The Panthers are 1-5 in Quad 1 and 13-3 across the last three quadrants. Pittsburgh is hanging onto its tournament hopes for dear life at the moment, and with its next two games both being Q1 opportunities on the road against North Carolina and SMU, winning both would take lots of pressure off the Panthers for the remainder of the regular season.
On the wrong side of the bubble: Wake Forest, North Carolina, SMU
Wake Forest (17-6, 9-3 ACC), North Carolina (13-10, 6-5 ACC), and SMU (18-5, 9-3 ACC) are all listed as four of the 'next teams out,' meaning the 5th to 8th teams left out of the field.
Wake was expected to sit atop the ACC with Duke in the preseason, but it's been underwhelming through 2025 so far. The Deacs are 1-6 in Quad 1 games and 15-0 across the next three quadrants, but don't have many wins that prove they're a tournament-caliber team. Wake has a win against Michigan from back in December, but have no quality wins at all besides that. The Deacs have won eight of their last ten games, but will likely need to win at least six of their seven remaining regular season games and make a push in the ACC Tournament to have a chance.
It's been a complete letdown of a season for UNC in year four under Hubert Davis, with the Heels ranked #9 in the AP preseason poll and now more likely than not will miss the NCAA Tournament altogether.
The Heels are a measly 1-9 in Quad 1 with one solid win over UCLA. However, UNC has several rough blemishes on the resume keeping it out of the field completely, with losses to Stanford, Wake, and Pitt. The Heels have also lost four of their last five games, and an at-large bid to March Madness might be out of the question altogether at this point.
SMU's next two games are both at home against Pitt and Wake Forest. The Mustangs have won seven of their last eight games, and two wins over their next two games would likely replace them with Pitt in the field. SMU has had a nice season in year one under Andy Enfield, but the program doesn't have a singular Q1 win, making it extremely difficult to convince the committee to give you a bid in the field. SMU only has one Q1 opportunity remaining, a road game against Stanford, but two wins in a row over Wake and Pitt is what the Mustangs need to have a chance.
Trending in the right direction: none
The only remaining ACC team with an above .500 ACC record is Stanford at 7-5, but losses to teams like Cal Poly and Grand Canyon will make it near impossible for the Cardinal to get an at-large bid. Outside of the clubs named above, no ACC team has any shot at all to make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the ACC Tournament.
The magic number for ACC teams to make the big dance will almost certainly be 4 or 5.