Mike Krzyzewski has no regrets about his career choices. He retired following the 2021-22 season as the all-time winningest coach in men's college basketball history. He led Duke to 13 Final Fours and won five national championships.
But I'm sure sometimes in retirement, Coach K ponders what would have happened had he taken the Los Angeles Lakers job back in 2004. It was the closest he came to leaving the Blue Devils. He said he almost took it. The allure of coaching superstar Kobe Bryant and trying his hand at the NBA level brought a great deal of appeal.
He ultimately had the opportunity at the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, when he coached Team USA to back-to-back gold medals. His coaching chops were always obvious, and his ability to handle egos made him one of the best to ever do it. He convinced Kobe in 2008, arguably the best player in the world at that point, to sacrifice for the betterment of the team.
Could he have done the same as Kobe's head coach in the NBA?
What would Duke have done if Coach K left after the 2003-04 season?
Let's take a few guesses at what the timeline might have looked like.
Who would Coach K's replacement have been at Duke in 2004?
For Duke, you can bet that the Blue Devils would have looked at their own bench to replace the legendary Krzyzewski, just like they did when he retired 18 years later. The top assistant for Duke at the time, and thought to be the heir apparent for Coach K, was former Blue Devils star Johnny Dawkins.
Duke probably promotes Dawkins in this timeline. In the real world, Dawkins stuck around in Durham for four more seasons before taking the head coaching job at Stanford. He had a moderate amount of success in Palo Alto during his eight seasons there before getting let go following the 2016 season. He got the head coaching job at UCF that offseason, where he has remained ever since.
How would Dawkins have fared as Duke's head coach? He went 155-116 in eight seasons with Stanford, but only got to the NCAA Tournament once in 2014, when the Cardinal advanced to the Sweet 16. He did win a pair of NIT Championships, but the inability to get into March Madness doomed his tenure out west.
He wouldn't have been Coach K, but he would have fared better in Durham. For starters, he would have inherited a loaded Duke roster led by rising juniors JJ Redick and Shelden Williams. Under Coach K, that Duke team earned a No. 2 seed, but got ousted in the Sweet 16. Something similar probably happens under Dawkins.
Duke got ousted in the Sweet 16 the following season, too, despite entering the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed led by Redick and Williams, who were now seniors. They ran into an LSU team featuring Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Tyrus Thomas. Who knows how Duke would have fared in year two without Coach K. Maybe they aren't the No. 1 overall seed, so maybe they get a more favorable path and avoid that LSU team altogether. Would have allowed Dawkins to sneak a Final Four berth? The NCAA Tournament is often a crapshoot.
The real question is how long a rope Dawkins would have gotten, inheriting a program that won three national titles under Coach K? Let's envision a scenario with the following finishes:
04-05: Sweet 16
05-06: Final 4
06-07: Missed NCAA Tournament
07-08: 1st Round
08-09: Sweet 16
09-10: Sweet 16
10-11: 2nd Round
11-12: 2nd Round
12-13: 1st Round
If those were the results after nine seasons, there's a strong chance that Duke is looking to move on. The Final Four berth in 2006 would have energized the fanbase completely behind Dawkins. Missing the NCAA Tournament the following season would have been a major blow, but that was a rebuilding year even under Coach K after Redick and Williams departed. The Blue Devils made the tournament as a 6-seed under Coach K and were ousted in the first round by VCU. The back-to-back Sweet 16 berths in 2009 and 2010 would buy him a little more time, but failing to get back to the second weekend of the dance the following three seasons would probably doom his tenure. In reality, Duke won the National Championship in 2010 under Krzyzewski, his fourth.
So what happens next? That's contingent on one thing:
How much success would Coach K have had with the Los Angeles Lakers?
Joining the Lakers in 2004, Coach K would have inherited a roster in flux. The Kobe-Shaq relationship was over. The Lakers ultimately traded Shaq to the Miami Heat that offseason, something they likely would have done regardless.
Building around Kobe with Coach K on the bench, the 04-05 season is likely a rebuilding year for the Lakers. In our timeline, the Lakers went 34-48 and fired Rudy Tomjanovich mid-season. They rehired Phil Jackson in the offseason.
Under Coach K, the Lakers are better, but still not good enough. They go 41-41 and miss the playoffs.
The next two years are likely similar for Coach K and the Lakers as they would have been with Jackson on the bench. LA has a good, not great team, and they get knocked out early in the playoffs. Perhaps under Coach K, the Lakers avoid blowing a 3-1 lead to the Phoenix Suns in the first round, but that's probably the best-case scenario.
After that, things probably play out pretty similarly still. During the 2007-08 season, the Lakers traded for Pau Gasol, sparking a run of three straight NBA Finals appearances, including back-to-back championships in 2009-10.
Let's say Krzyzewski gets those rings. That would give him five championships, just like in real life, except three of them would be in college and two in the NBA, potentially cementing his status as the greatest basketball coach of all time.
An aging Lakers team probably falls off the same as they did in real life, and Coach K makes the decision to retire following the 2012-13 season. Here's what I think would have happened during his tenure in LA:
04-05: 41-41; Missed Playoffs
05-06: 45-37; 2nd Round
06-07: 45-37; 1st Round
07-08: 56-26; NBA Finals
08-09: 66-16; NBA Champions
09-10: 60-22; NBA Champions
10-11: 57-25; 2nd Round
11-12: 43-23; 2nd Round (lockout shortened)
12-13: 48-34; 2nd Round
So with Coach K retiring from coaching in the NBA and Duke having a potential opening at head coach, it would seem the stars have aligned for a reunion...
Coach K returns to Duke - but not as head coach
Coach K still has the itch to work, but instead of returning to Duke as the head coach to a hero's welcome, he's hired as the Athletic Director in 2013, with his biggest task being finding a replacement for Dawkins, who was allowed to resign.
The obvious candidate for Duke would have been another former Krzyzewski player: Tommy Amaker. Fresh off back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances at Harvard, including a 14-over-3 upset in 2013 against New Mexico, Coach K hires Amaker to replace Dawkins.
While he doesn't have the success Coach K ultimately did, with his mentor's guidance, he leads Duke to a national championship in one of his first four seasons.
There are a million scenarios to ponder on what would have happened had Coach K taken the Lakers job. It would have been a massive butterfly effect that served to change the lives of hundreds, if not thousands, of other athletes and coaches.
While it's fun to think about the alternate timeline, neither Duke fans nor Coach K would change the one we got.
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