Run the ball and convert on third down: How Duke football can shine on senior night

Duke football (7-3, 3-3) is looking to give its seniors a night to remember as the program approaches its final home stand of the 2024 regular season against the Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5, 3-3).

The Blue Devils are 4-1 at home on the season and bounced back nicely their last time out with a 29-19 win on the road versus NC State after two straight losses to SMU and Miami. Now, it faces a Virginia Tech squad who was a popular sleeper pick in the ACC through the preseason but is now .500 and lost its last two games.

Duke sits as slight 3-point underdogs with the game's point total sitting at 46.5. This matchup has the outlook of a defensive battle with two of the top five scoring defenses in the ACC.

The Blue Devils have the #2 scoring defense in the ACC, allowing an average of just 22.1 points per game. The only team they've allowed to score over 30 points in a game this season is Miami, who arguably has the best offense in the nation.

The Hokies have had a sound defense throughout the season, but have struggled late giving up 38 and 24 points in their last two games to Syracuse and #23 Clemson respectively.

It's almost a given in most of Duke's games that the defensive core will hold opponents out of the end zone and keep their point total low given the consistency throughout the season. Now it turns to the offense to step up against a solid ACC defense and put points on the board themselves to keep Duke in the game. Here's how they do it.

Run the ball

Offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer has made attempts to get the run game going throughout the season, and Star Thomas had a three-game stretch earlier in the season with over 100 rushing yards in each game. But for the most part, the rush attack has lacked for the Blue Devils. Duke ranks 15th in rushing yards per game in the ACC averaging 99.6 per contest. Since week 5, the Blue Devils have only rushed for 100 yards once. The backfield has mainly been Thomas and Peyton Jones after Jaquez Moore went out in week 2 with a lower body injury, and it has lingered for the remainder of the season keeping him on the bench. Brewer talked about how the lack of Moore's presence for the majority of the season has affected the run game in his press conference this week, saying "I hated this year because Jaquez is such a good football player and he went down with an injury in the Northwestern game and he just never could get healthy enough to come back in." Brewer mentioned Moore will sit the remainder of the season to be able to play all of next season, leaving the backfield duties to Thomas and Jones as it's been. The Hokies are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game of any team in the ACC (158.5), paving the way for the Blue Devils to take some pressure off of quarterback Maalik Murphy and pound the ground game to keep the chains moving. It's become a regular occurrence in games for the Blue Devils to have a quarter or a half of completely stagnant offense with no rhythm, and now Duke sees a favorable matchup to run the ball regularly on first or second down to gain yards. Murphy had his most consistent game through four quarters of the season against NC State, but taking some pressure off of him with a consistent run attack will be big for the Blue Devils on Saturday night.

Convert on third down

Third down conversions, or the lack there of, have been one of the major reasons for Duke's offensive struggles in games. Duke ranks 16th in the ACC, converting on just 28.9% on third down this season. The only FBS teams with a lower third down conversion percentage than Duke are Houston (4-6), Florida State (1-9), Southern Miss (1-9), and Kent State (0-11). With the lack of a consistent rush attack, Duke has found itself in a lot of third-and-middle scenarios forcing them to pass. The predictability defenses have scouting Duke with the high rate of passes Duke uses on third down has made it inconsistent for the majority of the regular season. Despite Duke's recent win over NC State, the Blue Devils went 0-for-9 on third down. Duke is averaging 27 points scored per game this season, and it makes fans wonder what the ceiling for this offense could be if third downs weren't such a continuous issue. But, Duke enters Saturday night with an opportunity to turn these woes around. The Hokies are allowing the 4th-highest third down conversion percentage per game of any team in the ACC (40.9%). In their two losses over the last two weeks, the Hokies allowed Syracuse and Clemson to convert on third down at a combined 16 of 33 clip (48%). This is a game where Duke can attack in late down situations and move the chains to play consistent offense for four quarters, something the team has rarely been able to do this season as the Blue Devils have only scored two or more touchdowns in a quarter twice through 2024.

It should be a defensive battle on ACC Network primetime this Saturday night as the Blue Devils look to leave the seniors happy in their final game at Wallace Wade.