Duke basketball (23-3, 15-1 ACC) is currently sitting as the #3 team in the Associated Press Poll and is seen as a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament by most metrics. The Blue Devils are the #2 team at KenPom and #2 team in the NET rankings. Duke is also the only team in the KenPom ratings to be ranked in the top five nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Duke Blue Devils are a true national championship contender, currently with the second-best odds to win the national championship per ESPNBET at +400, just behind the #1-ranked Auburn Tigers at +350.
So let's take a look at the best scenarios for the Blue Devils in a potential national championship opponent. These rankings will be based off teams that could realistically make the national championship, how well the team matches up with Duke, and how great a game between the two programs would be.
5. Tennessee
Rick Barnes has always thrived on defense, and the Volunteers are a top-five defensive team in the nation year-in and year-out. This would be a scenario that bodes well in Duke's favor with Tennessee's lack of scoring at times. The Vols backcourt of Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier is one of the best duos in the nation and it would be a treat to see them face off against Tyrese Proctor and Sion James as two of the best defensive guard duos in the nation. Duke's size and athleticism would overpower the Vols here and the toughness the Blue Devils bring would match that of Rick Barnes' squad. Additionally, the lack of three-point shooting would hurt the Volunteers, as Tennessee shoots just 34.1% (158th nationally) from beyond the arc as a team compared to the Blue Devils at 37.9% (23rd nationally). Duke's scoring depth and stellar defensive versatility would outlast the Volunteers in a matchup between these two programs, but it would be a hard-nosed matchup that fans would be treated to.
4. Houston
In last year's NCAA Tournament, the 4-seeded Blue Devils met the 1-seeded Cougars in the Elite 8, and Duke prevailed after Houston's Jamal Shead left the game with an ankle injury. Similar to Tennessee, Kelvin Sampson thrives on elite toughness and defensive prowess. However, this is one of the best offensive squads Sampson has had in a long time at Houston as the Cougars rank seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in three-point percentage (39.4%) at KenPom. Houston's guards LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan would give Duke's backcourt a run for their money with their tournament experience and elite defensive capabilities. Both of these squads like to play at a slow pace, so the Blue Devils will likely need to rely on transition and creating turnovers a bit more to get the Cougars out of rhythm. Khaman Maluach and Maliq Brown (as long as he comes back healthy) will have a tall task to keep Houston's bigs J'Wan Roberts and JoJo Tugler in check. This would likely be another low-scoring, hard-nosed type of game and would likely rely on three-point shooting.
3. Florida
The Gators are one of the most evenly-matched opponents that Duke could potentially face in the national championship. The Blue Devils would have to control the tempo in this one as Florida likes to get up and down the court quick. Todd Golden's squad scores at a premium and is one of the few teams that has the type of defensive style and versatility that can match that of Duke. Walter Clayton Jr. is a National Player of the Year candidate, and Cooper Flagg would likely have to deal with Alijah Martin or Alex Condon, the versatile wings Florida has at their disposal. This one would come down to Duke making their outside shots and being able to keep the Gators out of transition. Because when Florida gets hot, it's near impossible to slow them down. The Gators are the only other squad other than Duke to beat Auburn this season.
2. Auburn
A Duke versus Auburn national championship is the best game college basketball has to offer. I only put the Tigers at the two spot here because the Blue Devils have already beaten the Tigers earlier this season at Cameron Indoor, and it's extremely difficult to beat a team twice, especially one as good as Auburn. The Tigers and Blue Devils are widely considered the top two teams in college basketball and Auburn will likely receive the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, given how the club has rolled through the SEC this season which has potentially been the best single-season conference in the history of college basketball. Flagg and Johni Broome seem to be in a two-man race for the National Player of the Year award, and it would be up to Brown and Maluach to slow him down inside, similar to how they did in Duke's win over the Tigers earlier this season. Isaiah Evans was a big reason Duke was able to take down Auburn as the freshman went six-of-six from three-point range for 18 points in the first half against the Tigers in early December, and it's a matchup the Blue Devils would have to be hot from the perimeter to win.
1. Alabama
Nate Oats plays maybe the most entertaining style to watch in all of college basketball: get up and down the court quick and shoot in the first ten to fifteen seconds of the shot clock, take threes and layups, forget the mid-range. The Tide have elite backcourt depth that could wear out Duke with guys like NPOY contender Mark Sears along with talented pieces beside him like Aden Holloway, Labaron Philon, and Chris Youngblood. Bama has shooters all over the floor, similar to the Blue Devils, and this contest would be an instant classic and would one of the most entertaining national championship games of all time on paper. The Crimson Tide have an ability score like no other team in the nation, dishing out 100-point or more outputs in seven games this season. The sheer depth Alabama has would be a huge challenge for Duke to overcome with the slower pace the Blue Devils play at, but it's a game that could go either way with Duke having the upper hand defensively.
Obviously, Duke has to finish out the regular season and get all the way to the national championship, and the Blue Devils may see one of these squads before the big game. With an SEC-led tournament this year, these are the top five most entertaining scenarios for the Blue Devils in the national championship, all being winnable games.