The Duke basketball program suffered its first loss of the season in brutal fashion, falling 82-81 to No. 15 Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20. Now sitting at 11-1 on the 2025-26 campaign, the Blue Devils are still regarded as a perennial national title contender, and are in the midst of a long layoff before they take the court next on Dec. 31 against Georgia Tech at home to open up conference play.
Duke is the clear-cut best team in the ACC, but the conference looks to be in a much healthier place than it's been in any of the last five seasons. The Blue Devils dominated a mediocre ACC a year ago, rolling to a 19-1 conference record en route to an ACC regular season title and ACC Tournament Championship. However, the road now will likely not be as easy, with several true contenders around the conference.
Predicting when Duke basketball will lose its next game
Jon Scheyer and his club will almost certainly cruise to a 2-0 record to begin conference play, as Duke opens up its ACC slate against Georgia Tech (133rd at KenPom) before taking on Florida State (109th at KenPom) on the road. Then, there's some room for a slip-up.
Duke's first marquee ACC game will come against No. 16 Louisville in the KFC Yum! Center on Jan. 6. The Cardinals were regarded as the second-best squad in the ACC heading into the year and boast what is potentially the best backcourt in the entire country with Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell. Pat Kelsey's team hasn't been great defensively, but its offensive firepower could pose issues even for a team as elite defensively as Duke.
However, assuming the Blue Devils get their own offensive struggles in order, they should be able to contain the elite Cardinals' backcourt and win that game. So let's keep moving.
If Duke can take down Louisville on the road, at least a 7-0 start to ACC play is very much in the cards. After the road date with the Cardinals, Duke will face SMU (40th at KenPom) and Wake Forest (58th at KenPom) at home, and California (60th at KenPom) and Stanford (85th at KenPom) on the road over its next four games. All should be comfortable wins.
Then, Louisville comes into Cameron to take on Duke for the second time this season. If the Blue Devils begin conference play at 7-0, this is the perfect trap game at home for them to slip up if Louisville gets hot from the perimeter, which can happen in a hurry.
This contest is poised to be an instant classic between the top two teams in the conference, and losses have to come eventually. Here's where the undefeated road will end for Scheyer and Co., and their first conference loss will come in an offensive shootout against an uber-talented Louisville squad.
However, this loss will come at a perfect time, giving the Blue Devils a good portion of its non-con slate to make whatever adjustments it needs to for the remainder of the regular season.