Just because Manny Diaz and the Duke Blue Devils are the defending ACC champions does not mean it will be an easy road back to Charlotte. After going 7-5 during the regular season, Duke took advantage of its big opportunity to get to the title bout. They ruined the Virginia Cavaliers' chances at winning a conference championship and making the College Football Playoff. Could they do it again?
Here is what Diaz and the rest of the Blue Devils must navigate in its ACC title defense this season.
Date | Opponent | Location | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | Tulane Green Wave | Durham, NC | 3:30 p.m. ET |
Sept. 12 | at Illinois Fighting Illini | Champaign, IL | 3:30 p.m. ET |
Sept. 19 | Stanford Cardinal | Durham, NC | 4:00 p.m. ET |
Sept. 26 | William & Mary Tribe | Durham, NC | 3:30 p.m. ET |
Oct. 3 | Bye | ||
Oct. 10 | at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Atlanta, GA | TBA |
Oct. 17 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Durham, NC | TBA |
Oct. 23 | at Virginia Cavaliers | Charlottesville, VA | 7:00 p.m. ET |
Oct. 31 | Boston College Eagles | Durham, NC | TBA |
Nov. 7 | at North Carolina State Wolfpack | Raleigh, NC | TBA |
Nov. 14 | at Miami Hurricanes | Coral Gables, FL | TBA |
Nov. 20 | Clemson Tigers | Durham, NC | 7:30 p.m. ET |
Nov. 28 | at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Winston-Salem, NC | TBA |
Dec. 5 | ACC Championship Game | Charlotte, NC | 12:00 p.m. ET |
Duke will play nine conference games this year. Four will be at home, and five will be on the road. The Blue Devils host a playoff team from a season ago in Tulane out of the AAC in the non-conference. They will also have to play on the road at a solid Illinois team out of the Big Ten. Duke's other non-conference game will home vs. William & Mary in late September. How many wins are there to be had?
Let's now break down the best and worst-case scenarios for Duke before making an early projection.
Best-case scenario for Duke football entering its ACC title defense
In a best-case scenario, here is what Duke's record could be at the end of the regular season.
Wins (9): Tulane, at Illinois, Stanford, William & Mary, North Carolina, at Virginia, Boston College, Clemson, at Wake Forest
Losses (3): at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina State, at Miami
In this situation, Duke butters its bread by getting out of September unscathed with a surprisingly strong 4-0 record. This would include a home-opener win over Stanford on the CW in Week 3. Duke hits its first roadblock with an away defeat at Georgia Tech in Atlanta. While the Blue Devils bounce back at North Carolina, and pick up steam at Virginia and over Boston College, November is rough...
Even if Duke were to beat UVA in Charlottesville, the good luck in the second half of October will not continue into a rivalry game at NC State. The Wolfpack put the Blue Devils' playoff chances on life support with a tough loss at Carter-Finley. Miami might put the final nail in the coffin a week later in the Darian Mensah revenge game. The good news is Duke may win its final two games this season...
If the Blue Devils hold steady by beating Clemson at home in primetime on a Friday night, and then handle business at massive rival Wake Forest, Duke could finish the regular season at 9-3 overall and 6-3 in ACC play. If that is what their record ends up being, they would have an outside shot at getting to Charlotte to defend their title. Keep in mind Duke does not play Louisville, SMU, or Cal this season...
In a best-case scenario, 9-3 (6-3) Duke could win the ACC again to make the playoff for the first time.
Worst-case scenario for Duke football entering its ACC title defense
In a worst-case scenario, here is what Duke's record could be at the end of the regular season.
Wins (4): Stanford, William & Mary, North Carolina, Boston College
Losses (8): Tulane, at Illinois, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia, at North Carolina State, at Miami, Clemson, at Wake Forest
If Duke does not get quality quarterback play, things could hit the skids pretty quickly. The good news is the Blue Devils do draw some dreck out of the ACC in league play. The bad news is they might go 1-2 in the non-conference... Tulane was a playoff team a year ago, and Bret Bielema can really coach at Illinois. A William & Mary win after beating Stanford may give Duke a false sense of security early on.
In this situation, Duke not only loses at Georgia Tech, but it does not holds its own at Virginia either. A win over UNC at home keeps the dreams of a bowl game alive, but they are fading fast... While beating Boston College on Halloween could be spooktacular, that might be Duke's last win of the season... There is a non-zero chance it loses out at NC State, at Miami, home vs. Clemson, and at Wake Forest.
So at 4-8 overall and 3-6 in ACC play, that would firmly have Duke out of bowl-game conversations. It also puts Diaz into a very precarious spot. Duke is not going to fire him after a four-win season. The athletic department would be dumb to do so. However, he could see this as an opportunity to jump ship for a better job. If Florida State fires Mike Norvell, Diaz would be a serious candidate for that gig.
In a worst-case scenario, Duke bottoms out, as Diaz leaves for a shot to lead his alma mater's team.
How Duke fans should feel about Manny Diaz's team heading into the fall
Now that we have those two extremes outlined, here is a better guess of what Duke may do this year.
Wins (6): Tulane, Stanford, William & Mary, North Carolina, Boston College, Clemson
Losses (6): at Illinois, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia, at North Carolina State, at Miami, at Wake Forest
In this spot, Duke finishes the season at .500 with a 6-6 mark overall and a 4-5 record in ACC play. If wanted to be cautiously optimistic, we may give the Blue Devils the Wake Forest road game. That all really depends on how Jake Dickert's second season goes in Winston-Salem. Working our way from start to finish, Duke avenges its loss to Tulane, but stumbles in Champaign vs. Illinois in the first two.
Duke still gets past Stanford and William & Mary at home before falling to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Unless something unthinkable happens, Duke should clobber UNC at home. However, Virginia enacts revenge over Duke in Charlottesville. The Blue Devils still pick up a win at home over toothless Boston College before hitting the gauntlet that is November. NC State and Miami will go down as likely losses.
And then we find Duke at 5-5 heading into its final two games of ACC play. As long as it gets a win at home over Clemson or a road win at Wake Forest, this team will be going bowling again. For the sake of argument, let's expect for Duke to get up for Clemson in a night game with a bowl berth on the line. The Blue Devils win that one, but could potentially run out of gas vs. feisty Wake Forest on the road...
Since Duke won seven regular-season games ago, being within a stone's throw of it this year is fine.
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