Vermont vs. Duke Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round

Breaking down the odds, spread, key players, trends, and best bet prediction for the NCAA Tournmanet Round of 64 matchup between No. 4 Duke and No. 13 Vermont.
Mar 14, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; Duke Blue Devils players walk off the court after their game
Mar 14, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; Duke Blue Devils players walk off the court after their game / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Duke Blue Devils stumbled in the ACC Tournament, but a lot can be forgiven if they can string together a few wins in the NCAA Tournament, starting with a Round of 64 matchup against No. 13 Vermont.

Duke made it to the second round of the tournament in its first year under head coach John Scheyer, beating Oral Roberts but falling to Tennessee in the Round of 32. Meanwhile Vermont will return to the tournament after failing to make it there last year. The last time the Catamounts have won a game in the Round of 64 was in 2005 when they upset Syracuse.

Can they find a win this time around or will the Blue Devils coast to the Round of 32? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

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Vermont vs. Duke odds, spread, and total

Vermont vs. Duke betting trends

  • Vermont is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
  • The UNDER is 13-2 in Vermont's last 15 games
  • Vermont has won 10-straight games
  • Vermont is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games vs. ACC opponents
  • Duke is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
  • The UNDER is 9-2 in Duke's last 11 games
  • Duke is 19-1 straight up in its last 20 games played on a Friday

Vermont vs. Duke how to watch

  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM EST
  • Venue: Barclays Center
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Vermont Record: 28-6
  • Duke Record: 24-8

Vermont vs. Duke key players to watch


Shamir Bogues: Vermont's guard is its second leading scorer, averaging 11.0 points per game, but it's more about what he does when the balls not in his hands. He leads the team with 5.3 rebounds per contest and also averaged 1.9 steals per game. If Vermont wants any chance of upsetting Duke, the Catamounts have to find a way to force turnovers and that's where Bogues can step up in a big way.


Kyle Filipowski: Big players make big plays in big games and that's what Kyle Filipowski needs to do the rest of the tournament. he's averaging 17.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game, all of which are the most on the team. He will be an integral part of every game from here on out.

Vermont vs. Duke prediction and pick

Vermont has continuously disappointed in the NCAA Tournament. On an almost yearly basis, people look at them as a potential dark horse for a first round upset after a strong regular season and then fall short when they face a team that can overpower them. This year's version of the Catamounts isn't the best edition of this team we've seen in recent history so I expect yet another similar result.

Vermont won't be able to keep up with Duke offensively. The Catamounts are just 116th in the country in effective field goal percentage, well below the Blue Devils who come in at 21st. Duke has an underrated defense as well, ranking 50th in defensive efficiency.

One of the indicators I tend to look for in an upset candidate is a team that can force turnovers and grab offensive rebounds in order to create extra scoring opportunities. Vermont doesn't have that ability, ranking just 159th in the country in extra scoring chances per game, averaging a measly +0.3.

I see no path to victory for the Catamounts and I think Duke is too athletic, too skilled, and too fundamentally sound for Vermont to give them a scare. I'll lay the points with the Blue Devils.

Pick: Duke -11.5

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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