Scouting report: How does Duke football take down arch-rival North Carolina?
By Hugh Straine
Duke (4-0) hosts cross-town rival North Carolina (3-1) this weekend to open up ACC play. This is a big test for the Blue Devils to take down a tough ACC opponent, although Duke is favored to win the game. UNC has had a somewhat rocky start to the 2024 season, but after a disastrous 70-50 loss at home to James Madison last weekend, it can be expected that the Tar Heels are hungry to come back after that one.
There have also been reports about North Carolina head coach Mack Brown being on the hot seat, so one can expect his guys to rally around him and come to Wallace Wade with a chip on their shoulders.
In what could be a huge game for the Blue Devils to improve to 5-0, let's take a look at where Duke needs to excel to handle the Tar Heels.
Dominate in the passing game
North Carolina is twelfth in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game (238.5) and has given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the conference as well (7). Five of those passing touchdowns were let up against James Madison last week, but UNC hasn't faced a team yet with a dominant offense. Its first three opponents were Minnesota, Charlotte, and NC Central, where it let up a total of 47 points combined before the mauling the Dukes did to them. Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy has now thrown three touchdowns in each of the Blue Devils' last three games while throwing for at least 216 passing yards in all of those games as well. Against a UNC passing offense that ranks tenth in the ACC, getting the nod in the air will put that much more pressure on the Tar Heels to keep up. Despite its defensive struggles, the Tar Heels still average the sixth-most points per game of any ACC team (38) compared to Duke at eleventh (30.8). As Murphy continues to find more weapons out wide and gets more comfortable in the pocket, Duke has the potential to turn this game into an air-raid festival.
Duke Defensive line makes life difficult for UNC
Duke's defense has been one of the best in the ACC over the first four weeks of the season, allowing the fifth-least points per game (15.3) and the least passing yards per game (132). Despite the Tar Heels having a middle-of-the-pack passing attack, it has one of the best ground games in the conference. It averages the most rushing yards per game of any team in the ACC (221.8) and is second in rushing touchdowns (12). Duke has been solid at stopping the run so far this season, but this is undoubtedly the biggest test yet for the front seven. Tar Heel junior running back Omarion Hampton leads the conference in rush yards per game (138.8) and is second in rushing touchdowns (6). Hampton leads the conference in carries with 85, sixteen more than the next man up, which is Duke back Star Thomas at 69, and Hampton is still averaging 6.5 yards per carry. UNC has also allowed the seventh-most sacks in the conference at eight through four games, and Duke is second in the conference in sacks with fifteen already. If guys like Alex Howard and Wesley Williams can put pressure on the quarterback and make life difficult for him, Duke will be in great position to win.
Duke offensive line holds up
One of the biggest improvements as the season has gone on has been the Blue Devil offensive line. Duke offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer highlighted in his press conference yesterday how the offensive line was so much different coming into this season due to the transfer portal, and injuries have continued to shake things up. As the core continues to gel together as the 2024 campaign progresses, this will be a big fight for the team as the Tar Heels have twelve sacks on the season, good for fourth in the ACC.
Although Duke sits at 4-0, it hasn't been particularly battle-tested outside of its win against Northwestern, as its other three opponents include Elon, Connecticut, and Middle Tennessee State. In the contests against Elon and Connecticut, Duke definitely had its struggles when it probably should've gone home with a win with a lot less stress. Last week against MTSU, we saw the first week where the Blue Devil offense was consistent through four quarters. Now against a fairly even-matched opponent in the Tar Heels, it will be fun to see if the Blue Devils can carry the momentum into Wallace Wade this Saturday.