Duke couldn't close the gap between the Blue Devils and ACC leader North Carolina over the weekend, but are expected to bounce back in a big way against Notre Dame on Wednesday.
The Blue Devils are laying a big number at home, but is this matchup generating betting value on the total? Here's how I'm eyeing a best bet in this ACC matchup between Duke and Notre Dame.
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Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total
Duke vs. Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Duke is 10-11 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Notre Dame is 9-6 ATS as an underdog this season
- Notre Dame has gone UNDER in 15 of 22 games
- Notre Dame has gone OVER in six of 10 games
Notre Dame vs. Duke How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, Feb. 7
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ACC Network
- Notre Dame Record: 7-15
- Duke Record: 16-5
Notre Dame vs. Duke Key Players to Watch
JR Konieczny: The sophomore forward has been shooting very well in ACC play, shooting nearly 40% from behind the arc as he tries to space the Notre Dame offense out. The Fighting Irish is struggling, but is focused on winning the three-point battle and a lot of that will fall on Konieczny.
Kyle Filipowski: Even in a losing effort, Filipowski put together another big effort, scoring 22 points, but hit only one three on six attempts. He'll face a far weaker team in ACC bottom feeder Notre Dame, but this was a bad matchup for the Fighting Irish, the sophomore scored only seven points in Duke's road win.
Notre Dame vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
Duke is laying a massive number in hopes of getting back on track at Cameron Indoor Stadium after the North Carolina loss, but I'm going to pivot and go for the under in this game as Notre Dame's offense has fallen apart.
The Irish are the worst ACC offense, according to KenPom, dead last in turnover percentage and 14th in effective field goal percentage. The Duke defense is rock solid in ACC play, but it's interior can be had, 10th in 2-point field goal percentage. However, Notre Dame is 44.8% on two's in league play. The team can't generate any offense.
Duke should be able to cruise in this one, but Notre Dame's defense has been rock solid in ACC games, third in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and incredibly stout at the rim, tops in two-point field goal percentage defense.
Both teams play slow, Notre Dame is bottom 30 in adjusted tempo and Duke is in the bottom half according to KenPom, so this can be more of a slog with limited possessions. I believe in the Blue Devils offense, but not to push this over the total.
Give me the under on Wednesday night.
PICK: UNDER 134.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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