Duke football is looking to start a season 4-0 for the first time since 1971 with a win on the road versus Middle Tennessee State tomorrow afternoon. The Blue Devils haven't had the smoothest start to the season, but have been able to prevail in late-game situations to secure its first three wins. Starting 4-0 would be a huge mark for Duke to hit as it begins ACC play next week at home versus North Carolina.
Let's take a look at the keys for success for the Blue Devils tomorrow.
Establish the run early
Duke has converted on just 33.3% of third downs so far this season which is good for fifteenth in the ACC. Part of the huge reason Duke has found itself in offensive droughts is giving the defense the ability to predict the plays it will run. In Jonathan Brewer's air-raid scheme, Duke throws the majority of the time and rarely threatens the run as a potential means of attack. With running back Jaquez Moore sidelined with injury last week, Star Thomas took over as the lead back being the first Blue Devil running back with over twenty carries in a game this season, as Thomas had 22 for 122 yards. Defenses won't respect the run game an offense provides until the offense earns that respect, and being able to make that a consistent threat will open up the offense so much more for quarterback Maalik Murphy to be able to make big plays downfield. The offensive line gave Murphy all the time he needed in the pocket last week against Connecticut, which led to several huge plays. Yet, establishing the run game with Thomas and Peyton Jones will keep the defense on its toes and give Duke that flexibility to switch up some of its schemes. MTSU has given up an average of 179 rushing yards per game to its opponents, so this is a prime matchup for Duke to get the ground game rolling.
Consistency from Maalik Murphy for four quarters
Murphy has been great to start the year as he's completed 64% of his passes for 801 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions. As each game moves forward, he looks more and more comfortable in the pocket and proved it last week, looking much more willing to take deepshots down the field early in games. But, we're still waiting for the QB to move the offense consistently through the entirety of the game. Through the first two games of the season, Duke scored 35 of its 52 total points in the second half or overtime periods of games as the team had a really hard time getting on the board early. Against UConn last week, Duke exploded in the first half to take a 17-0 lead midway through the second quarter. Then, a pick-six by Murphy completely shifted the momentum of the game as UConn would make it 17-7 before the half and eventually take the lead 21-17 lead heading into the fourth quarter as Duke was held scoreless in that frame. In the fourth, the Blue Devil defense was able to keep UConn out of the scoring column, and Duke was able to get down the field and score the eventual game-winning touchdown. Each game this season, at some point of the contest, Duke's offense has gone completely cold for a solid period of time. It will be a huge step forward once the offense can move the ball and consistently score to put pressure on the opponent to keep up.
Red zone stops
Duke has had one of the best red zone defenses in the ACC so far this season, only letting opponents get there seven times all season and giving up just one passing touchdown in the area. Besides the fact that this Duke defense has been one of the best overall in the conference, the ability it's had to end drives short has given the offense that much more breathing room to work, especially when the offense has struggled to move drives along. Middle Tennessee State is seventh in Conference USA in points per game this season (18.7) and has been held scoreless in six different quarters. This matchup should be a huge boost for the defense as it should be in control for the entirety of the game. The Blue Raiders are also seventh in C-USA in sacks allowed at six, so guys like Alex Howard and Michael Reese could feast.
Offensive line continues to hold up
Duke's offensive line group looked as good as it did all year against Connecticut last week, having no issues keeping Murphy safe in the pocket and giving him all the time he needs to find open receivers. Duke is tied for the third-least sacks allowed in the ACC so far in 2024 at three, and against a Middle Tennessee State defense that has given up an average of 42 points per game to its opponents, this could be the game where we see the Duke offense really explode for the first time. MTSU is towards the top of the C-USA in sacks, getting to the opposing quarterback seven times this season behind a good defensive front seven. This will be a good test for the Blue Devil O-line to continue to wall up.