Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, March 9 (Blue Devils cover vs. rival)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bets for Duke vs. North Carolina on Saturday, March 8th using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mar 2, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA;  Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) shoot over
Mar 2, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) shoot over / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
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Rivals meet with the ACC regular season title on the line.

North Carolina won the first meeting in Chapel Hill, but since then Duke has played itself back into contention for the ACC crown. The Blue Devils are playing like the better team since then, winners of seven of eight.

In the regular season finale, who can grab control of the ACC Tournament? Let's find out with our full betting preview!

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Duke vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Trends

  • Duke is 8-2 against the spread over the last 10 games
  • North Carolina is 17-13 ATS this season
  • Duke is 13-6 ATS at home this season

Duke vs. North Carolina How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, March 9
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Duke Record: 24-6
  • North Carolina Record: 24-6

North Carolina vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armanbdo Bacot: Bacot got the better of Kyle Filipowski in the first meeting, scoring 25 points with 10 rebounds and five assists while missing only three of his 13 field goal attempts. The UNC big man is a brute down low, but will Filipowski be up to the task in front of the Cameron Crazies?

Duke

Jared McCain: McCain continues to come on strong down the stretch of his freshman season. He scored 23 points in the loss at UNC while grabbing 11 rebounds and has been a key cog on both sides of the floor as floor spacer but a solid rebounder as well.

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

This is a great revenge spot for the Blue Devils, who have been the far superior team since the loss at Chapel Hill. Since that game, Duke ranks third in Bart Torvik's adjusted efficiency metric while UNC checks in 22nd. The Tar Heels still have a stout interior with Bacot patrolling the paint, but the team has been vulnerable on the perimeter where the team is still outside the top 300 in terms of open three rate, per ShotQuality.

Duke will make the Tar Heels pay from beyond the arc. The Blue Devils have been clicking on all cylinders from three, shooting about 38% in that month long stretch, but that's opened up driving lanes for the team to shooting over 56% on two's.

The Blue Devils ability to slow this game in transition will be the key. The Tar Heels want to run, but Duke shuts it down completely, 341st in opponent transition frequency. If this game becomes a battle of who can out-execute one another in the half court, I'll side with the home favorite to get it done.

UNC's offense revolves around its ability to get second chances and get to the free throw line, but the disciplined Duke defense will dictate the terms of this game, making for a regular season split.

PICK: Duke -4.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!