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Duke vs. Miami Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 21 (OVER is best bet)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 12, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) shoots in front
Feb 12, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) shoots in front / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
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Duke continues its push for an ACC regular season crown Wednesday night with a road game against Miami.

Despite making the Final Four last season, the Hurricanes have struggled quite a bit in 2024 and now are banged up. Miami is far outside the NCAA Tournament conversation and must score a home upset against Duke without its leading scorer Nijel Pack to get back in the mix.

How will the Blue Devils respond to a desperate Miami team? Here's our best bet for Wednesday's matchup with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook!

If you sign up for FanDuel using the link below, you will be eligible to get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet of just $5 wins! Get started below.

Duke vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total

Miami vs. Duke Betting Trends

  • Miami is 15-11 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Duke is 3-5 ATS on the road this season
  • Duke has gone UNDER in six of the last 10 games
  • Miami has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 games

Duke vs. Miami How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, February 21st
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Watsco Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Duke Record: 20-5
  • Miami Record: 15-11

Duke vs. Miami Key Players to Watch

Duke

Jared McCain: The freshman has had an up-and-down season, but he had his signature moment on the road against Florida State over the weekend, scoring 35 points and making eight threes in the team's 76-67 win against the Seminoles. A dangerous shooter, 41% on the year, has struggled a bit in ACC play, hitting on 37% of his shots from the perimeter, but is this the beginning of a late-season surge?

Miami

Matthew Cleveland: Cleveland picked up the slack for the Hurricanes against Boston College, scoring 20 points, but the team couldn't score a must-win on the road for the team's NCAA Tournament hopes. With no Pack again, and an elite foe coming to Miami, Cleveland is going to need another big effort.

Duke vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

The absence of Pack does hurt Miami, especially down the stretch as the team needs its most trusted ball handler on offense, but the numbers do state that Miami has been better when Pack is off the floor.

According to Hoop-Explorer, Miami is scoring more than six points per 100 possessions when Pack is sitting and is allowing nearly 12 points fewer per 100. While Pack has a tangible impact in certain situations, the drop-off may not be as bad as some may expect.

However, that's not masking the fact that the Hurricanes have underwhelmed in ACC competition. The team has allowed 70 or more in five of the last six games and is getting pummeled on the defensive glass (10th in ACC DREB%).

I believe Duke, who is shooting nearly 38% from beyond the arc in ACC play and second in offensive rebounding rate, will be able to score at a high clip in this one, but Miami's offense should be able to still create points at home. The team can score in transition or the half court, ShotQuality grades each team as top 64 or better in both in terms of points per possession and should be able to keep pace on its home court.

I'll go with the over in what should be an entertaining ACC matchup.

PICK: OVER 150.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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