Duke vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 17 (Blue Devils set to cover on road)

Feb 12, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA;  Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) controls
Feb 12, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) controls / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke continues to flirt with the top of the ACC standings as North Carolina as dropped two games since the rivals met two weeks ago.

The Blue Devils now must survive the first of several road tests on Saturday at Florida State. Can Duke's ACC best offense hold up against an aggressive Florida State defense? We got you covered with our full betting breakdown below!

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Duke vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total

Florida State vs. Duke Betting Trends

  • Duke is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) this season on the road
  • Duke is 13-11 ATS this season overall
  • Florida State has gone OVER in 15 of 24 games this season

Duke vs. Florida State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 17th
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Donald L. Tucker Civic Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • [Away Team] Record: 19-5
  • [Home Team] Record: 13-11

Duke vs. Florida State Key Players to Watch


Kyle Filipowski: This should be a big game from Duke's big man as FSU provides little resistance on the interior. After a few down games, Filipowski was at his best against Wake Forest, pouring in 21 points while grabbing 10 rebounds and blocking two shots. Can he put up similar numbers against FSU?

Florida State

Jamir Watkins: The junior forward has had a strong season for the Seminoles, averaging north of 14 points with nearly six rebounds, but has really been on point of late. Watkins has scored 21 and 26 points, respectively, over the last two games. A downhill threat, Watkins has taken 23 free throws in the two games. While both losses, he has helped prop up what's a middling ACC offense.

Duke vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Duke should be able to handle the Florida State heavy ball pressure defense that leaves the team vulnerable on the back-end.

FSU is second in ACC turnover rate, but the team's high intensity defense allows plenty of open chances and opportunities for the opponent if it can handle it. Duke should be equipped to do that, third in ACC TO% and fourth in offensive rebounding rate. The Seminoles are the leagues third worst defensive rebounding team and also foul at the highest rate.

I expect Duke has little issues navigating the Seminoles defense and generates plenty of easy buckets.

On the other end, Duke should also shutdown the Florida State offense that is reliant on getting in the open court and generating points before the defense is set. FSU is 46th in transition rate, per ShotQuality, and the offense struggles to score in the halfcourt, ranking 258th in points per possession according to SQ.

This is all important because there are few more disciplined defenses in the country than Duke, who is outside the top 300 in terms of transition frequency and is top 10 in terms of points per possession allowed.

If this game is played in the halfcourt, the Seminoles will struggle to score as the is bottom half of the country in terms of effective field goal percentage.

I feel confident Duke can navigate Florida State on the road and get a road cover.

PICK: Duke -5.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!