Calculating Duke football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

After over a century of having the most complicated and exclusive methods for choosing its champion of any major sport, college football is modernizing in 2024-25. That's because the College Football Playoff is expanding from four teams to twelve giving programs like Duke a glimmer of hope that they can join the party this season.

Since its inception in 2014, the playoff has featured only four teams. However, this year, the six highest-ranked college champions will get an automatic bid. Thus, Duke could earn a spot by surprising everyone and winning the ACC.

If that doesn't happen, the Blue Devils could grab an at-large bid by being one of the six highest-ranked teams not to win their conference. That's where a recent graphic posted by Kelley Ford, a college football power rankings and resume rating expert, is helpful to study.

According to Ford's chart, which was published on social media earlier this month, Duke is one of a group of programs that would have to win 11 regular-season games to earn an at-large playoff bid. Other ACC teams in that same boat include Wake Forest, NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina.

Is that even possible for Duke? Let's take a look at what the path to 11 regular-season wins might have to look like.

Duke's path to 11 wins is rather narrow

In Ford's estimation, Duke would be allowed only one slip-up if it wants to earn an at-large bid in the playoff. So the Blue Devils would have to go 4-0 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.

Wins at home over Elon and on the road at Middle Tennessee don't seem all that difficult to envision. However, a road tilt at Northwestern and a home game against UCONN will put Duke to the test early.

In ACC play, Duke is going to have to be perfect against the bad and mediocre teams from a season ago. That means beating North Carolina, Georgia Tech, SMU, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.

Then, the Blue Devils would have to pull off some stunning upsets. Games at Miami and NC State will be daunting, to say the least, and a home tilt with Florida State (a program Duke has never beaten) will be one of the season's most difficult challenges.

Still, if Duke wants to get to 11 wins, it is going to have to pull off some unexpected wins. That's why the more likely path to the playoff might be by winning the conference.

Duke could perhaps slip up in the non-conference but get hot and win six ACC games and find a way to squeak into the ACC title game if the conference beats up on itself and six wins is good enough for a second-place finish. Then, pulling off an upset in the ACC Championship would potentially get Duke into the playoff.

Either path seems highly unlikely, though. That's because the program will be in a transition year with new coach Manny Diaz taking over this year.

Still, the offseason is the time to dream about big possibilities and that's what every fan should do. And that's why Ford's chart has fans across the country thinking about "What if?".