1-seed Duke is getting ready to take on 1-seed Houston this weekend in the Final Four in San Antonio. The Blue Devils and Houston are potentially the top two clubs in college basketball, but unfortunately, only one will have the chance to play for a national championship next week.
Duke and Houston are in the top ten nationally in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency per KenPom. The only other teams in the top ten in both metrics are the other two 1-seeds facing off in the Final Four: Auburn and Florida.
Duke is the only team in the nation ranked in the top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, as the Blue Devils are slotted at #1 and #5 in those categories, respectively. Houston is ranked #10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Despite both these clubs being top ten offenses in the country, KenPom projects this matchup to be a tight, low-scoring matchup. KenPom analytics project Duke to win the game 68-66.
This makes sense as both programs are elite defensive units, but KenPom is predicting that this game will be a hard-nosed, defensive battle where likely the more physical team will come out victorious.
In most seasons, this is the type of game that Houston would favor. But this year's Cougars squad might be one of the best offensive teams that Kelvin Sampson has ever had at Houston. The Cougars have only been ranked inside the top ten in adjusted offensive efficiency one other time since 2014, and that was in 2022.
The Cougars are the second-best three-point shooting team in the country based on percentage, as Houston is shooting 39.7% from the perimeter as a team. The Cougars have three guys shooting over 40% from three as well.
Duke has only allowed one of its four opponents through March Madness to shoot over 40% from beyond the arc and is ranked 29th nationally in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 30.8.
The Blue Devils will have to run guys like LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp off of the three-point line like they did against Alabama, as Houston can get hot in a hurry from out there.
Keep an eye on Khaman Maluach as well, who will have a tall task with guys like J'Wan Roberts and JoJo Tugler inside, who are two elite offensive rebounders.
It's the #1 offense in the country against the #1 defense in the country this Saturday. KenPom sees this contest as an ugly one but an instant classic that will come down to the wire, nonetheless. Tune into CBS at 8:49 pm ET this Saturday.