The Blue Devils are up to number three in the AP Poll after another dominant display against Notre Dame. Minus some late game "mess around and find out what happens" Duke was never in doubt of winning that game for 38 minutes of action. That was largely due to Cooper Flagg having the best Duke performance in ACC play this century. His 42 points on 14 shots, to go along with seven assists and six rebounds was just shear dominance. Now we are not going to throw a parade for the boys for beating a sub .500 Notre Dame team at Cameron, but it was a fun game to watch nonetheless. So now we turn around, once again at home, to face an even more inferior opponent in the Miami Hurricanes (4-12, 0-5 ACC). We will dive in and look at the historical data of this rivalry and give our favorite bet for the game.
Miami & #3 Duke Historical Data
In the last few weeks, you could say that the Miami program has just gone into absolute shell shock. This is due to long time coach Jim Larrañaga just up and quitting mid-year at 75 years old. Since then, Miami has lost all four games, but they have fought valiantly in each, the largest loss being by 15 to a solid Florida State team. But Florida State is not Duke, they are not ranked and do not possess one of the best defenses in the country. Miami is not only 4-12 record wise, but one of the worst teams against the spread in the country. They are 3-12-1 against the spread, including 0-2 on the road. Those road games they have played though they have gone over in both, so higher scoring games on the road at the least
Now head to head, Duke has won the majority of their games the last five years, which is often the case in the ACC. They have won seven of those ten games, but Miami has covered in half of the games, including five of the last seven. Duke losing outright is almost outside the realm of possibility, but Miami has gone into Cameron and played close games over the years. Plenty of one or two possession games at the end, but this is a true mismatch this time around.
The key for Duke will be how they defend Matthew Cleveland in this game. With no Nijel Pack for Miami, they will be leaning on Cleveland on the scoring front. Their ability to defend him and keep center Lynn Kidd off the glass will determine whether they cover this game. As far as offense goes, Duke should be able to score at will. Miami is 342nd nationally in defensive rating and only create just over six steals per game, so not exactly stout on that end.
Our Expert Analysis For Miami vs. #3 Duke
I normally would look at a Duke number this high and say "no chance, I am staying away from that number." But they just faced a Notre Dame team who shot the lights out and they still won the game. This to me is the best Duke team since the 2015 championship team, and their ability to defend Miami should not be questioned. I think if you play the Duke spread at -24, they win by 30+ and you are happy. If you see that steep number and get concerned, I think Miami's team total under 61.5 is worth a look.
If you are looking for a player prop to play, I think you look at Tyrese Proctor over 10.5 points. He had a quiet shooting day against Notre Dame, with just three points on 1-6 shooting. This is a spot where I think he can take advantage of getting to the hoop, and as long as he hits a couple of threes as well, he should cash with ease. As I stated previously, I have no doubt who will win this game, it is all about who shows up and performs against a much lesser team.