We are officially less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday 2025 where the NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed. The show will begin at 6:00pm ET on CBS on March 16th. So with just a few weeks to go, let's take a look at which Atlantic Coast Conference teams are locks, on the right side of the bubble, and on the wrong side of the bubble with the regular season winding down.
Joe Lunardi's recent Bracketology update projects three ACC teams in the field: Duke, Clemson, and Louisville.
Locks: Duke, Clemson
Duke (26-3, 17-1 ACC): The Blue Devils have been the cream of the crop in the ACC all season and will likely be a 1-seed in this year's NCAA Tournament. Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils boast wins over Auburn at Cameron Indoor and Arizona on the road, but a lackluster ACC has made it very difficult for Duke to gain more quality wins in-conference. Duke is 6-3 in Quad 1 and 20-0 across the other three Quadrants while being ranked #2 in the Associated Press Poll. Its losses have come to Kansas and Kentucky on neutral courts and Clemson on the road, and the Blue Devils are heavy favorites to win the ACC Tournament. Jon Scheyer's club is on a six-game win streak, winning by an average margin of 31.3 points. So long as the Blue Devils make it to the ACC Championship game, a 1-seed should be a lock. Tyrese Proctor is expected to come back soon from injury, and there is optimism that Maliq Brown will be back for the postseason.
Clemson (24-5, 16-2 ACC): The Tigers have had an incredibly strong second half of the season and are projected as a 5-seed by Lunardi. Clemson is 4-2 in Quad 1 and 20-3 across the other three quadrants. Brad Brownell's group carries wins on its resume over Duke and Kentucky with two losses in Quad 2 (Memphis, South Carolina) and a loss in Quad 3 (Georgia Tech). Clemson has won 12 of its last 13 games and is ranked 23rd in the NET and #13 in the AP Poll. The Tigers are tied with Louisville for the second-best ACC record and would lose the tiebreaker with the Cardinals as Louisville beat Clemson back in January. But with two high-quality wins, the Tigers should have no issues making the field.
Almost locks: Louisville
Louisville (23-6, 16-2 ACC): After starting the season out 6-5, the Cardinals have risen to the occasion despite injuries in year one under Pat Kelsey and are currently ranked #19 in the AP Poll. Following a loss to Kentucky in December, the Cards have won 17 of their last 18 games with the lone loss coming to Georgia Tech. What keeps the Cards outside of a total lock is the lack of resume-boosting victories. Louisville is 4-4 in Quad 1 with its best wins this season being over West Virginia and Clemson. The Cardinals have suffered two Quad 2 losses to Oklahoma and the Yellow Jackets, but have no losses in the last two Quadrants. Louisville is ranked #25 in the NET and, earning the 2 or 3 seed in the ACC Tournament, should be a lock by winning one conference tournament game.
On the right side of the bubble: None
There's a few ACC teams that are right on the cusp of being in, but all of them still have work to do. Outside of the three programs listed above, no team in the conference is safe on Selection Sunday at this point in time and will need to put in work through the ACC Tournament to make the field.
On the wrong side of the bubble: North Carolina, Wake Forest, SMU
North Carolina (19-11, 12-6 ACC): The Tar Heels have won their last five games after dropping five of their previous seven to keep their tournament hopes alive, but UNC still has work to do to make it. It's been a disappointment of a season after UNC was ranked #9 in the preseason AP Poll, and this could be a remake of the 2022-23 season where the Heels became the first team since the tournament expanded to be ranked #1 in the preseason and miss the NCAA Tournament completely. The Tar Heels are ranked #45 in the NET and are a measly 1-10 in Quad 1 with its only Quad 1 win coming over UCLA on a neutral floor. Despite only one of the Heels' losses coming outside of Quad 1, it was a Quad 3 loss at home to Stanford and the Heels have still lost 10 of its 11 games in the top quadrant. UNC would be the 6-seed if the ACC Tournament started today, and the Heels will need to make at least the ACC semifinals to have a chance at the field, as that would mean a win over a top-three ACC Tournament seed to at least get one more Quad 1 win on the resume. Lunardi has UNC in the first four teams out as of today.
Wake Forest (20-9, 12-6 ACC): The Demon Deacons have been the ACC's biggest disappointment this season outside of UNC after being picked third in the ACC preseason poll. Wake has really shot down its chances of making the tournament over its last five games, suffering three Quad 3 losses to NC State, Virginia, and Florida State. The Deacs are just 2-6 in Quad 1 with their best wins coming over Michigan and SMU. With an 18-3 record across Quadrants 2-4, Steve Forbes might be in for another season of just missing the NCAA Tournament. Similar to UNC, Wake will definitely need to at least make the ACC Tournament semifinals to have a chance, but the program's chances of making March Madness might be gone after how its last five games have gone, unless it wins the ACC Tournament.
SMU (21-8, 12-6 ACC): Like Wake Forest, SMU has really struggled down the stretch to keep their chances of making the field low. Despite being a bit of a surprise ACC contender in year one under Andy Enfield, the Mustangs have now dropped three of their last five games, two of those in Quad 2 to Wake and Stanford. SMU doesn't own a single Quad 1 win, being 0-5 in the category. They're 16-0 in Quadrants 3 and 4, but a 5-3 record in Quad 2 will make it nearly impossible for the Mustangs to get an at-large bid with no Quad 1 victories on the resume. SMU doesn't have another Quad 1 opportunity across its final two games of the regular season, so it likely will have to win the ACC Tournament to make the field.
No other squads in the ACC are in contention barring a shocking winner in this year's ACC Tournament. It's been quite a down year for the conference and only three teams out of the league are in or almost in the field.