Duke sophomore guard Isaiah Evans took a major leap from his freshman season for the Blue Devils, going from being a sharpshooter off the bench a year ago to becoming a full-time starter and one of Duke's most important players in year two.
In doubling his minutes per game, Evans more than doubled his scoring output, leaping from 6.8 points per game to 15. His three-point percentage dropped from 41% to 36%, but that was on nearly three more attempts per game.
Evans' strong season has him firmly on the NBA Draft radar. He's a 6-foot-6 wing with 3-and-D capabilities, something that is always coveted by the NBA.
But in a deep 2026 draft class, would another year of college potentially move him up the board enough to make returning to Duke for his junior season a better alternative?
Isaiah Evans is currently projected as a late 1st Round pick in the NBA Draft
Tankathon has Evans ranked No. 26 on their Big Board, projecting him to be selected with the 26th overall pick by the Los Angeles Lakers.
The scale for the 26th pick is around $14.8 million on a four-year contract. That's significant money, and while Duke might be able to afford to give him more NIL money on a one year deal than he would stand to make in the first year of his contract, taking the guaranteed NBA contract makes a lot of sense, and striking while the iron is hot and you are healthy also puts you one step closer to the coveted second NBA deal, where the real money is made.
But there is an argument that returning for another season could potentially lift Evans into the lottery discussion for the 2027 draft, in what is expected to be a weaker class. The difference in going 14th (end of lottery) and 26th is nearly $10 million.
Evans can look no further than Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg, who bypassed being a late first-round pick in last year's draft to return to college, and now, after winning the Big Ten's Player of the Year and leading Michigan to the Final Four, he's likely going to find himself in the draft lottery.
So it's not as cut and dry of a decision for Evans as it might appear. The good news for him is that he can declare for the draft before the May 1st deadline, go through the NBA Combine and gather intel, and then have until May 26th to withdraw from the draft and return to school if he chooses.
That's the path that probably makes the most sense for Evans.