This is certainly a blow out spot for Duke, as the 7-2 Blue Devils take on the 5-4 Incarnate Word Cardinals. This is not a game to worry about who will win, but rather who will cover and whether the game goes over or under the 143.5 total line. So we will look at some data points before giving you our lean on Tuesday night's matchup.
Incarnate Word vs. Duke Historical Data
We once again have a team that does not have much of a history against the Blue Devils. When I say history I mean these two have never shared a court in their history. So today we can strictly look at the Cardinals' numbers so far this season. Now they enter this game with a 5-4 record and are relatively solid when it comes to covering games, going 6-3 ATS on the year. They have lost to teams like Northwestern State, South Alabama, Northern Arizona, and California Baptist, so not exactly elite competition.
The key to Incarnate Word keeping this close is the play of Davion Bailey, their 6' 4" guard. He averages over 17 points per game on almost 46% shooting. If he has a great night they may cover this 33.5-point spread. If Bailey has an off night, they will look to Jalin Anderson and Dylan Hayman to provide some scoring. The three ball will also be crucial, as they are coming off just a four three-point make night against Texas A&M-Commerce. Before that game though they hit anywhere from 9 to14 threes in their four games prior.
What We Expect For Incarnate Word vs. Duke On Tuesday Night
The numbers may tell you that the Cardinals have no issues scoring the ball, but this is another level of competition. You have a team that lacks ball movement, averaging just a 1.15 assist to turnover ratio against an elite defensive team. Duke will also have a significant edge on the glass, which could make things tough as well for Incarnate Word to score. The Blue Devils defensively only give up 61 points per game, and have played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date.
My concern with a game like this is the garbage time. Duke is likely to clear out the bench with plenty of time left in the game, which always worries bettors that a backdoor cover or backdoor over could occur. What this Duke team has showed me so far though is that they even hold the bad teams to low scoring nights. The most points they have given up to bad teams is 62 points and they only average 51 points per game. With a line of 55.5 for the Cardinals team total, I think you take the under there. Covering a 33.5 is another angle you could take if you believe the Cardinals will struggle to score.