Duke clinched at least a share of the ACC regular season championship with Saturday's 77-51 thumping of Virginia, but will look to capture the outright league title on Monday night in Raleigh against a reeling NC State team.
The Blue Devils are peaking at the right time, winners of six straight games. Duke is 27-2 overall and the obvious No. 1 team in the polls, along with being the heavy favorite to enter the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed.
NC State comes in losers of four of its last five games, including the last two. The Wolf Pack fell on the road on Saturday to the same Notre Dame team that Duke blew out last Monday.
History may indicate that a Duke loss in Raleigh wouldn't be the worst thing. Three of Duke's five national championship seasons have included losses on the road to NC State in a season in which the Final Four was in Indianapolis. That just so happens to be exactly where this year's Final Four will be next month.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils at NC State final odds
- Spread: Duke -9.5
- Moneyline: -600 Duke, +430 NC State
- Point total (over/under): 148.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
The Vegas spread and over/under are in line with KenPom, which projects a 79-70 victory for the Blue Devils.
Bart Torvik's projection isn't far behind, though it is a little closer. Duke is favored by 7.8 points with an implied victory of 78-71.
Prediction for Duke vs. NC State
NC State could certainly use the win, though it seems to have remained solidly in the NCAA Tournament despite the road loss to Notre Dame.
But even in Raleigh, it's hard to envision Duke not coming out on top. The Blue Devils are just totally dialed in right now and seem impervious to overlooking anyone. Last week on the road in South Bend seemed like an obvious time for a letdown game, and Duke rolled to a 44-point win.
Duke's defense should make things difficult for Will Wade's team, and Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II should control the glass against a Wolf Pack team that ranks 259th in the country in offensive rebound rate.
NC State sticks around early, but Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils ultimately cruise to another win that clinches the outright ACC title.